Patience is Key..

Well, the Royals won again today, and now sit at 7-4 and atop the AL Wildcard leaderboard.  Obviously, we're 11 games into the year and it's WAY too early to make any assumptions about the 2011 season.. However, the Royals have avoided their characteristic slow start this season and now come home for an 8 game home stand which sees them facing the Mariners and the Indians (losers of 2 in a row).  Theoretically, the Royals could win 6 games and see themselves sitting at the top of the division almost a month into the season.  This would be great news.  It would be a testament to the young(ish) players the Royals brought in or called up for this season.. Ka'aihue, Francouer, Cabrera, etc. have all been contributors to this point.  Even players like Chris Getz and Matt Treanor have made impacts.  This has all been great and really fun to watch, but do not let it trick you into thinking it would be okay to rush our prospects.

It has been clear that many baseball teams have underperformed to this point this season.  The Royals may very well take advantage of all this bad baseball and actually finish .500 this year, I'm not predicting it, but I'm certainly willing to offer up the possibility that it could happen.  What I am most afraid of for this season is not losing 100 games, it is rushing players like Eric Hosmer and Mike Montgomery to the big leagues.  Mike Moustakas and Lorenzo Cain are basically locks to see the bigs sometime before the All Star Break this season, because they have both spent time previous to this season in AAA.  Eric Hosmer, however is 21 years old and has only played in ~50 games in AA.  He needs to spend the whole season (or at least until September) in AAA.  You can not leave a player in the minors too long (and even if you could, one season certainly would not be the cutoff point).  However, you CERTAINLY can rush a player to the bigs too soon.. (see ANY of the Royals top prospects over the last decade).  By bringing Hosmer to the majors this year you gain NOTHING.  It would involve sitting/trading one of Billy Butler or Kila Ka'aihue and there is no reason to do that until next offseason.  Give both of those players a year to hit and show what they can do before you decide which you would like to keep and which you would like to trade away.

The same mantra goes for Mike Montgomery and all of our young starting pitching.  Give them each a season in AAA to hone their craft, certainly they will only get better over time.  Our rotation is not good at this point, but we aren't planning on winning the world series this season yet either.  I can think of a situation MAYBE where a pitcher gets hurt and goes down in mid/late July in which I might be okay with bringing up a young hurler, but we can cross that bridge when we get to it.  At this point I'd like anyone under the age of 23 to stay in the minors this season, please.

As an aside, scouts and statisticians can agree that players peak when they are 27-32 (or so).  Don't you want to hang on to our young players for all or at least most of this time period?  You're not hurting yourself by being patient, but you could easily ruin this whole "The Process" by bringing players up before their time.

Thanks for reading.

Ponson OK as offense falters..

I guess we should be proud of Sidney Ponson for not sucking.  But while Greinke is 4-0, Sidney is 0-3.  Hey I know he pitched 8 effective innings today, and was a hanging breaking ball away from 8 great innings, but he's still 0-3, and his job is to win ball games.

That being said, the offense didn't help him out any.

Hitter of the Game

This might be the only time this year that I pick a hitter who went hitless for the hitter of the game award.  But Coco Crisp scored the first run and took 2 walks so he is going to get the award for today.  Coco did get thrown out trying to steal 2nd, but it took a perfect throw to nail him. Coco did not strike out

Pitcher of the Game

I guess Ponson will get it.  He pitched 8 innings allowing 3 runs on 6 hits, he walked 0 batters and struck out 7.  His biggest mistake was a 2 run hr from Brandon Inge in the 2nd inning

Tomorrow

I'll be going to the game tomorrow and I'll witness Brian Bannister's 2nd start.  He'll pitch against the Blue Jays who will send David Purcey to the mound.  The Royals will try to get back above .500 again.

Minor League Notables

Jeff Bianchi had a 2 hit game, going 2-4 with a double, a hr, 3 rbi, a run scored, and a strikeout.

Mike Moustakas had a 2 hit game as well, going 2-4 with a double, a run scored, and a strikeout.

Danny Duffy had his worst start of the season, earning his first loss in a 5 inning outing, allowing 6 runs on 8 hits including 3 home runs.  Duffy struck out 1 and walked 3.

Dan Cortes pitched for AA Northwest Arkansas, and had an OK outing.  He walked 4 and struck out 2 in 5.2 innings but gave up just 2 runs on 3 hits.  His ERA is 6.23 this season.

Thanks as always for reading.  I may snap some pictures for my post tomorrow.

Royals DFA the wrong Pena.

Well, a depressing game today.  Especially considering we were facing Zach Miner.  Ugh.. oh well.  Obviously Kyle didn't have it today.  We'll have to see how he bounces back next time out.  I'm (obviously) not ready to give up on him yet.

Hitter of the Game

Coco Crisp scored the only run, so I'll give him the award, but make no mistake, the offense was awful all around today.  Coco was 1-3 with 1 run, 0 rbi, 0 k and a walk.

Pitcher of the Game

Ron Mahay gets it today.  He came in and struck out the side on 16 pitches.  Enough said.  He gave up no hits and walked no one.

Tomorrow

The Royals will finish up the Tigers series tomorrow as Sidney Ponson takes on Armando Gallaraga.  I expect another massacre.  Ugh.

DFA'd

Brayan Pena was DFAd today and all I have to say is why..  Tony Pena Jr. should have not even made this team, let alone still be hanging on.  By all accounts Brayan is a very useful player who is well.. a lot better than TPJ.  Oh well.  DFA Fail.

Minor League Notables

Derrick Robinson had a nice game, going 3-6 with 3 runs, 2 rbi, and a double.  He did not walk or strike out.  He also stole 2 bases, bring his season total to 11.

Mike Moustakas was 2-5 with a double and a home run.  Mike scored 2 runs and drove 2 in.  He did not walk or strike out.

Antonio Jimenez was 3-4 with a double and a RBI.  He also stole a base, he did not strike out or walk.

Thanks as always for reading!

Johnny Giavotella, your 2012 AL MVP?

The Game

The Royals faced off against the Angels today in their fifth Spring Training game.  They got down early due to Gil Meche's disappointing first inning, and tied it up in the top of the 5th just to relinquish the lead once again in the bottom of the 5th to complete a topsy-turvy game.  Today was also the day the Royals lost all of their WBC players: Jose Guillen and Miguel Olivo to the Dominican Republic, Mark Teahen to Canada, Lenny DiNardo to Italy, Joakim Soria to Mexico, Dylan Lindsay to South Africa, Mike Aviles to Puerto Rico, and the Royals newest addition, Bruce Chen, to Panama.  Which urges the question, can you lose a player to the WBC if you never had him before the report date anyway?  

Meche

There's been a lot of post-game reporting that Gil Meche's back isn't/doesn't hurt.  Gil better do whatever he can to make sure that this truly is the case, because our season will rely heavily on him.  And so much chatter about a non-injury scares me.  Gil pitched one inning today, as scheduled, giving up 3 earned runs on 4 hits and a walk.  The lone bright spot was his two strikeouts.  

The Relievers

Duckworth, Hamulack and Peralta each gave up a run in their relief appearances as well, further reducing their chances of making the big league squad.  Barrera, Osoria, and Rosa had one scoreless inning each, giving up 0 hits and striking out one, with only Barrera walking one.  Both Barrera and Rosa have yet to give up runs this spring.  Altogether the pitchers issued 6 walks against 7 strikeouts.  Easily the worst numbers yet this spring.

The Offense

Crisp had as many hits as yesterday, zero, but drew three fewer walks.  Hopefully Coco can keep from having too many games like today, because his value is essentially measured in his OBP and his defense.  (Unless he gets back to hitting 15+ home runs).  Royals hitters altogether drew just two walks against 7 strikeouts, and were held to their first home run-less game this spring.

Hitter of the Game

David DeJesus shone brightly in the three hole, going 2-2 with a walk.  David knocked in 1 RBI and came around to score once himself.  Other Notables were Ka'aihue who went 1-1 and John Buck who was 1-2 with a walk and a leadoff double.  (If you haven't noticed yet, anytime John Buck leads off he is a doubles machine.  Next time he is leading off pay close attention because there is something like a 65% chance he will hit a double).

Pitcher of the Game

I don't really like ties, (see yesterday's post), but today Franquelis Osoria and Carlos Rosa will share the pitcher of the game award since they had the exact same outing, numbers-wise.  They each pitched a perfect inning with one strikeout.  The further we get into spring, the more I think Rosa might develop into our surprise in the bullpen this season, if he even gets a chance to make the team because of the numbers crunch.

Bruce Chen and His Impact

You may or may not remember back to 2005 when Bruce Chen was posting the best year of his career for the Baltimore Orioles.  Bruce was 13-10 in 32 starts with a 3.83 ERA and a 1.267 WHIP.  Fast forward to 2008 and Bruce was missing the entire season recovering from Tommy John surgery.  Bruce is just 31 and while he may not see an inning in the big leagues this year, his just being present as an option shows the drastic improvement the Royals have made since 2005.

The Bruce Chen signing is more important than Bruce Chen himself

In 2005, the Royals as a team posted a 5.56 ERA, including a rotation of Jose Lima and his 6.99 ERA, JP Howell and his 6.19 ERA, Zack Greinke and his 5.80 ERA (and 5-17 record, ouch), Runelvys Hernandez and his 5.52 ERA, and pre-Japan DJ Carrasco and his 4.79 ERA.  In 2005, the Royals would have brought in a pitcher like Bruce Chen to be their ace.  Jose Lima was their opening day starter that year after all.  Bruce would have been seen as the big FA acquisition that would carry the Royals to a .500 record.  Even more than the Juan Cruz signing that says that DM is ready to compete in 2009, the Bruce Chen signing says that the Royals have finally arrived in the MLB.  Sure, they are not a lock to even be .500, let alone make the playoffs or win the Central.  And they sure as hell don't get much media attention (though ESPN has sure been blogging about them lately).  But the Royals are finally a legit major league team who brings in a high upside option like Bruce Chen to work his butt off to maybe make our AAA squad to provide depth in case of injury.  And Ahh it feels so good.

Johnny Giavotella, your 2012 AL MVP?

Due to both their size and position, no one has draws more comparisons by Royals fans to Dustin Pedroia than Johnny Giavotella.  Sure they are both 5'8" (ish) and they are both scrappy, hard-nosed "ball players" and they were even drafted in the same round (2nd), but how similar are they actually?

College

Dustin Pedroia played mostly shortstop for the Arizona State Sun devils, starting every game during his college career.  Like Johnny, Dustin played 3 seasons of college, let's look at those seasons now:

Freshman year:

.347/.417/.432  - 13 doubles - 1 home run - 19 Ks 24 BBs

Sophomore year:

.404/.472/.579 - 34 doubles - 4 home runs - 13 Ks 36 BBs

Junior year:

.393/.502/.611 - 24 doubles -9 home runs - 15 Ks 48 BBs

Looking solely at these numbers, you can see the progression that led to Dustin's 2nd round selection by the Red Sox.  Pedroia improved his numbers every year.  His freshman year his best attribute was his average, and his ability to not be struck out.  As his experience progressed he hit for an even higher average with fewer strikeouts, but he also added power to his repertoire, and with that addition, he also began drawing more walks.  By his senior season, Dustin was a hitting machine, drawing over 3 times more walks than strikeouts and converting many of his doubles into home runs.  Looking at these numbers it is easy to see why Dustin has become such an excellent hitter, he's like a present day Ty Cobb.  (exaggeration)

Johnny Giavotella was a 3 year 2nd baseman at the University of New Orleans.  Taking a look at his numbers we see:

Freshman year: .348/.436/.529 - 11 doubles - 5 home runs - 28 Ks 36 BBs

Sophomore year: .385/.497/.676 - 19 doubles - 15 home runs - 25 Ks 54 BBs

Junior year: .354/.470/.591 - 16 doubles - 12 home runs - 25 Ks 53 BBs

At first glance, their numbers look fairly similar, they obviously both are high contact hitters who were very good in college.  But upon inspection, it becomes obvious that Johnny G was the more advanced hitter in college.  While Pedroia hit for a higher average in every year except his freshman year, and Johnny struck out more, Johnny also hit for much more power and drew far more walks.  Drawing walks and hitting for power are two of the most valuable things a hitter can do. While having a high average is also a good attribute, recent players like Adam Dunn and Pat Burrell have shown that you can hit for a low average and still be a top hitter in the league as long as you supplement that low average with hitting for power and drawing walks.  But Johnny Giavotella doesn't hit for a low average, he hits for almost as high of an average as Pedroia.  So, looking strictly at college numbers, Johnny Giavotella looks like the more promising young player, at least in my opinion.

Pros

But college isn't everything, and while Dustin Pedroia has completed his time in the minors and has a few years in the majors under his belt, all we have for Johnny G is 278 minor league at bats.  We'll take a look at them anyway.

2008:  .299/.355/.421 - 18 doubles - 4 home runs - 34 Ks 25 BBs in 278 at bats in A ball

The League Factor

Your first reaction might be "where did the power go?"  Which is a valid criticism, the thing to keep in mind, however, is these numbers came from the Midwest league, a notoriously pitcher friendly environment.  The league leader in home runs for the 2008 season was none other than fellow Burlington Bee, Mike Moustakas, with 22.  Moustakas was one of the best hitters in the Midwest league last year and he finished with a line that looked like this:

2008: .272/.337/.468 - 25 doubles - 22 home runs - 86 Ks 43 BBs

Oh, and Moustakas had 218 more at bats to produce these numbers than Johnny.  And he hadn't just finished his junior year of college where Johnny logged 237 at bats, and gone through the draft, and gone through being signed, etc.  When taken in context, Johnny's power numbers were actually pretty good, very good, even, when taken into consideration the fact that he is an undersized second baseman.

But how does that stack up against Pedroia?

Dustin Pedroia's first pro season was split between the South Atlantic and the Florida State league.  Both of which produced league leaders with 32 home runs in his first year, 10 more than the 22 that Moustakas slugged.  Keeping that in mind, Pedroia's first season broke down like this:

2004: .400/.474/.560 - 5 doubles - 1 home run - 3 Ks 6 BBs - 50 at bats in A ball

    .336/.417/.523 - 8 doubles - 2 home runs - 4Ks 13 BBs - 107 at bats in High A ball

Pedroia obviously performed well in his first season, drawing a BB for nearly every 8 at bats and only striking out 7 times.  While he showed that he was still a high average high OBP player, he also still hit for good power.  Pedroia's numbers did noticeably drop when moving up a level, and both leagues had similar offensive effects.  Pedroia would go on to shoot up through the minor leagues, reaching the majors as early as 2006 when he had 89 at bats.  Putting Johnny on a similar time scale would have him reaching the majors in 2010, right along with Moustakas (hopefully) and Hosmer (maybe).

The Result

Once you factor in the league factors, Dustin Pedroia and Johnny Giavotella both had remarkably similar debuts, with the slight edge going to Johnny G, in my opinion.  Johnny earns that edge because of his ability to still hit for decent power in a league where hitting for power is a very difficult thing to do.

Johnny Giavotella might regress into nothing and never make it above AA, but in an organization where middle infield prospects come to die (see Bianchi, Jeffrey) Johnny G has me more excited than any other Royals position player prospect except for Jose Duarte.

Thanks again for reading.