Where the Royals went wrong..

Last night, the Royals COMPLETELY blew up an opportunity to win against the Yankees.  If you watched the game, you know I'm talking about the 7th inning.  Let's take a look at exactly what happened:

At the top of the inning, the Royals are down 3-1, with Jeff Francouer to bat and Freddy Garcia still on the mound for the Yankees.  Francouer singles on a soft line drive to LF which gives us a man on first with no outs.  At this point in the inning the Royals are expected (based on Baseball Prospectus's 2011 expected runs matrix found here) to score 0.8367 runs.  There is a good chance at this point that the Royals can get a run this inning to get it to within one.

Next, Eric Hosmer walks on 6 pitches, which leads to Garcia getting the hook.  This brings up men on first and 2nd, still no outs, and now the Royals are into the Yankees bullpen.  The Royals should have expected to score 1.453 runs this inning, which means they were getting quite close to a situation where they SHOULD have expected to tie the game.

Next, Mike Aviles flies out in a full count to the CF.  This decreases the Royals expected runs to 0.9012.  The Royals probably still should have expected to get one run back in this inning.

Jeff Francouer then steals 3rd base, so we have men on first and third, 1 out, for a run expectancy of 1.1629.

Matt Treanor then comes to bat, he subsequently walks on 5 pitches, this loads the bases with 1 out.  At this point the Royals can expect to at least tie the game in this inning, their expected runs goes all the way up to 1.5642.  A solid hit will tie it.

What Ned Yost does next, in my eyes, is unforgivable:

He actually lets Alcides Escobar bat with the bases loaded in a 2 run game.  Yes, Alcides Escobar, he of the .233/.259/.279 and 53 OPS+... yes, that's not a typo.. 53 OPS+ this year.  Needless to say, he's one of the worst hitters in the AL, and Ned Yost ACTUALLY lets him bat.  At this point, I'm fuming.  The Royals need a hit to tie it, or a walk to bring it within one (at this point David Robertson has thrown more balls than strikes).  Beyond frustrating.

Escobar strikes out swinging and the Royals run expectancy drops all the way to 0.6724.   Chris Getz then also strikes out swinging but at this point it doesn't really matter, does it?

Because in the MOST important at bat of the game, Ned Yost let the worst hitter on the team strike out.


Ned Yost has done a lot of great things for KC, but if he can't see the importance of letting a Wilson Betemit hit in that situation (and then sliding Aviles over to SS where he played all of '08..) then I'm not sure I have any time for Ned Yost.


P.S.  In case you were wondering, Alcides Escobar has a -16 OPS+ when coming to bat with runners in scoring position.  No, that's not a joke, no, I'm not flaming Escobar, he's been a very valuable piece to this team, but DAMMIT NED, Ya don't let him hit with the bases loaded when you're down 2 and have only 1 out!

Patience is Key..

Well, the Royals won again today, and now sit at 7-4 and atop the AL Wildcard leaderboard.  Obviously, we're 11 games into the year and it's WAY too early to make any assumptions about the 2011 season.. However, the Royals have avoided their characteristic slow start this season and now come home for an 8 game home stand which sees them facing the Mariners and the Indians (losers of 2 in a row).  Theoretically, the Royals could win 6 games and see themselves sitting at the top of the division almost a month into the season.  This would be great news.  It would be a testament to the young(ish) players the Royals brought in or called up for this season.. Ka'aihue, Francouer, Cabrera, etc. have all been contributors to this point.  Even players like Chris Getz and Matt Treanor have made impacts.  This has all been great and really fun to watch, but do not let it trick you into thinking it would be okay to rush our prospects.

It has been clear that many baseball teams have underperformed to this point this season.  The Royals may very well take advantage of all this bad baseball and actually finish .500 this year, I'm not predicting it, but I'm certainly willing to offer up the possibility that it could happen.  What I am most afraid of for this season is not losing 100 games, it is rushing players like Eric Hosmer and Mike Montgomery to the big leagues.  Mike Moustakas and Lorenzo Cain are basically locks to see the bigs sometime before the All Star Break this season, because they have both spent time previous to this season in AAA.  Eric Hosmer, however is 21 years old and has only played in ~50 games in AA.  He needs to spend the whole season (or at least until September) in AAA.  You can not leave a player in the minors too long (and even if you could, one season certainly would not be the cutoff point).  However, you CERTAINLY can rush a player to the bigs too soon.. (see ANY of the Royals top prospects over the last decade).  By bringing Hosmer to the majors this year you gain NOTHING.  It would involve sitting/trading one of Billy Butler or Kila Ka'aihue and there is no reason to do that until next offseason.  Give both of those players a year to hit and show what they can do before you decide which you would like to keep and which you would like to trade away.

The same mantra goes for Mike Montgomery and all of our young starting pitching.  Give them each a season in AAA to hone their craft, certainly they will only get better over time.  Our rotation is not good at this point, but we aren't planning on winning the world series this season yet either.  I can think of a situation MAYBE where a pitcher gets hurt and goes down in mid/late July in which I might be okay with bringing up a young hurler, but we can cross that bridge when we get to it.  At this point I'd like anyone under the age of 23 to stay in the minors this season, please.

As an aside, scouts and statisticians can agree that players peak when they are 27-32 (or so).  Don't you want to hang on to our young players for all or at least most of this time period?  You're not hurting yourself by being patient, but you could easily ruin this whole "The Process" by bringing players up before their time.

Thanks for reading.

The Next Coming of Rick Ankiel?

I'm sure you've heard the story by now of Rick Ankiel the pitcher.  He came up as a phenom and flamed out almost as quickly later that year in the playoffs, due almost solely to a complete lack of command.  In 2000, at the age of 20, Rick Ankiel pitched in 2 playoff games.  He logged a total of 4 innings with a stat line that read: 4 IP, 5 H, 7 ER, 0 HR, 11BB, 5K, and 9 WILD PITCHES.  He literally could not find the glove.  The next season he was up for less than 30 innings in the majors and his career as a pitcher was over.

I bring up this refresher in the history of control blow ups on the mound because Vin Mazzaro had a similar incident on Sunday.  Mazzaro got the start against the Albuquerque Isotopes, but only managed to make it through 2.1 innings.  His line looked like this: 2.1 IP, 2 H, 5 ER, 7 BB, 3K, 1 WP.  Not on the exact same level but pretty eerily close to Ankiel's first playoff start.  Now the good news is that while Mazzaro was somewhat lucky last year, his control wasn't really much of a problem.  The bad news is that his control isn't really that great.  Mazzaro has 213.2 innings pitched in the majors in his career.  He has 89 walks for a BB/9 of 3.7.  When I see that his K/9 is only 5.8 it really makes me nervous.  This could be something that is just flukey and ends up being early season jitters.  But it's definitely something to keep an eye on.  According to this article at Royals.com, Mazzaro will now be passed over his first scheduled start (This Saturday) in lieu of Sean O'Sullivan.

The article states that the Royals want to make sure Mazzaro gets a few quality starts in AAA under his belt before he pitches in the majors this year, even though he won the 5th starter's job in spring training.  This is understandable but it is scary that Sean O'Sullivan will be his replacement.  O'Sullivan is like a worse version of Mazzaro, not many strike outs, too many walks, and he's prone to the long ball.  As Roayls fans we didn't expect to get off to a 6-3 start, but here we are, and we're about to throw another long reliever in to be a starter, just as we have in the past.  There is one bright side to O'Sullivan, he's somewhat young, at only 25 there is a decent chance he may still improve.  But, as like Rany from www.RanyOnTheRoyals.com likes to point out, most good pitchers are just as good in their early 20's as they are in their mid to late 20's.

Time will tell if Mazzaro or O'Sullivan will even be relevant to the Royals future pitching staffs.  Until then, it'll be an interesting story to follow.

2011 Standings Predictions

Below are my predictions for the end-of-the-year standings for the 2011 MLB season.  I have made a few "bold" predictions, mostly because I see some older teams regressing and some young teams taking a step forward.  As all of us Royals fans know, this season won't be nearly as exciting as next year, but hopefully I can check back at the end of the year and see how accurately (or not) I was able to predict this season!   Play Ball!


AL East:
Boston Red Sox
Tampa Bay Rays (Wild Card)
Baltimore Orioles
New York Yankees
Toronto Blue Jays

AL Central:
Minnesota Twins
Chicago White Sox
Detroit Tigers
Kansas City Royals
Cleveland Indians

AL West:
Texas Rangers
Oakland Athletics
Los Angeles Angels
Seattle Mariners

NL East:
Philadelphia Phillies
Atlanta Braves (Wild Card)
Washington Nationals
Florida Marlins
New York Mets

NL Central:
Milwaukee Brewers
Cincinnati Reds
St. Louis Cardinals
Chicago Cubs
Houston Astros
Pittsburgh Pirates

NL West:
San Diego Padres
Colorado Rockies
San Francisco Giants
Los Angeles Dodgers
Arizona Diamondbacks

Thanks for reading!

A New Kind of Stat..

Check back tonight/tomorrow for a post concerning a new kind of statistic I have come up with which will help to determine player efficiency, especially as it pertains to driving in runs. Thanks!

Edit - New post will be up saturday morning.  Thanks for the patience!

Royals DFA the wrong Pena.

Well, a depressing game today.  Especially considering we were facing Zach Miner.  Ugh.. oh well.  Obviously Kyle didn't have it today.  We'll have to see how he bounces back next time out.  I'm (obviously) not ready to give up on him yet.

Hitter of the Game

Coco Crisp scored the only run, so I'll give him the award, but make no mistake, the offense was awful all around today.  Coco was 1-3 with 1 run, 0 rbi, 0 k and a walk.

Pitcher of the Game

Ron Mahay gets it today.  He came in and struck out the side on 16 pitches.  Enough said.  He gave up no hits and walked no one.

Tomorrow

The Royals will finish up the Tigers series tomorrow as Sidney Ponson takes on Armando Gallaraga.  I expect another massacre.  Ugh.

DFA'd

Brayan Pena was DFAd today and all I have to say is why..  Tony Pena Jr. should have not even made this team, let alone still be hanging on.  By all accounts Brayan is a very useful player who is well.. a lot better than TPJ.  Oh well.  DFA Fail.

Minor League Notables

Derrick Robinson had a nice game, going 3-6 with 3 runs, 2 rbi, and a double.  He did not walk or strike out.  He also stole 2 bases, bring his season total to 11.

Mike Moustakas was 2-5 with a double and a home run.  Mike scored 2 runs and drove 2 in.  He did not walk or strike out.

Antonio Jimenez was 3-4 with a double and a RBI.  He also stole a base, he did not strike out or walk.

Thanks as always for reading!

Another late post.. woops

Yesterday's game is proof that the Royals will be nothing this year if not dramatic.  The Royals again lost due to an error by Trey Hillman, namely that Gil Meche should have NEVER pitched as long as he did.  I was fuming about 24 hours ago, but I've had time to settle down and realize that if Trey keeps this up (personally losing 3 games in the first 15) then he'll be gone by the All star break.  As it stands, the Royals will send Zack Greinke to the mound to extend his franchise record scoreless innings streak against the Detroit Tigers and Rick Porcello.  Interesting matchup, I won't get to watch it until after it's over, unfortunately, because of work, but I promise I'll have another update tonight about the game and I'll include some of our "hot" prospects down in the minors (here's a hint, they're 2 centerfielders).

Hitter of the Game

Alberto Callaspo's RBI double was pretty much the most important hit our offense had, though Mitch Maier was equally important in getting on base and then stealing 2nd.  Either way, Bert Reynolds Callaspo is going to be the hitter of the game award winner.

Pitcher of the Game

Gil Meche ended up with a line of 7.1 ip 5 h 4 r 3 er 7 k 3 bb, which isn't bad, but it should have been even better if Trey knew how to manage his bullpen.  Meche "earned" the loss, but he also earned the pitcher of the game award.

Tomorrow

Which is actually "today", but as I said earlier, Greinke and Porcello face off in the battle of the phenoms.  First pitch is at 7:10.  Today will be one of the best games at the K this year, Fireworks friday, buck night, Greinke pitching, weather nice.  Perfect.  Get out there!

Halfway There..

Well, Ponson proved he is awful yet again, but at least Horacio is out of the rotation..

Bannister will start tonight as he was recalled from Omaha yesterday and Doug Waechter was placed on the DL (Forearm Strain.. uh oh).  Sure, a lot of things went the Indians way yesterday (6 double plays by the Tribe for instance) but the sooner Ponson is out of the Rotation the better.

This is why the Royals are halfway to having their ideal rotation.

Hitter of the Game

I guess I'll go with David DeJesus, who was 2-5 with a home run, 3 RBI and 2 runs scored.  David's HR came in the 9th with 2 outs to make the game a 1 run game once again.  The Royals never led after the 1st inning yesterday.

Pitcher of the Game

Robinson Tejada came in and struck out the side without allowing a hit.  He did walk 2, but oh well.  All of the pitching sucked yesterday and I feel like Tejada was the most dominant.

Tomorrow

The Royals face off against the Indians at 6:05 again tomorrow.  Bannister vs. Cliff Lee.

Thanks for reading.

Hillman's Gotta Go..

..And fast.

I'm very frustrated writing this post to the point where it's more difficult than usual.  Trey Hillman cost the Royals the game today, and it was the second time *by my count* this has happened this season, and we're only 12 games in.

The Royals sit at 7-5, and if a normal, even semi-intelligent manager had made the calls these first two weeks there is no doubt in my mind the Royals could be 9-3 and sitting pretty atop the AL Central.  But no, Hillman HAS to use Joakim for the 9th inning when we have a lead.  Let's be honest, Joakim Soria is PROBABLY our best pitcher.  If the Royals need one batter retired, Joakim is the guy.  SO WHY IN THE WORLD DO YOU LIMIT HIS INNINGS? Sure, he pitched 4 straight games, so let him sit two, fine.  But why do you bring in the likes of Jamey Wright and Kyle Farnsuck to pitch instead of Soria?  It's gotta stop.  Soon.

Oh, and more AWFUL news.  Hillman has decided Gil Meche needs an extra day off, so instead of pitching Wednesday on normal rest *like he's done all his career with KC* Trey is going to give Horacio the Ball and throw off Meche's schedule, and essentially forfeit the game.  Boy, if Cliff Lee ever got an opportunity to turn his season around this would be it.  In yesterday's post I talked about what Lee did to the Royals in his 4th start last year.  I can only imagine he's already licking his chops seeing what he can do to us on Wednesday.  If the Tribe scored 22 runs in a game that Wang started, I wonder how many they can score against Horacio.. over/under at 30.. anyone?

Anyway, on to the routine stuff:

Hitter of the Game

DDJ and Jacobs both had good offensive games, and they both had defensive.. err.. miscues.  I'll go with Jacobs for the hitter of the game here, simply because his home run came at a more crucial time, at least by my estimation.  Jacobs was 2-4 with a home run, 2 rbi, 1 run scored and 1 strike out, 0 walks.

Pitcher of the Game

We'll go with Kyle Davies, the innings 3-6 version.  Kyle's line ended up at 6 ip, 3 h, 5 bb, 8 k.  Not bad for a #3 starter.  Davies has become very useful, even in his not-completely-effective current form.  He's one of those players that's very close to putting it all together *I think* and when he does, look out!

Tomorrow

The Royals have off tomorrow, creating a perfect opportunity for DM the GM to fire Hillman the game loser.

Teahen celebrates return to 3rd with 5 hits as Gordon hits the DL..

Tonight was one of those nights when (almost) everything goes right.  The starter had a quality start, everyone in the lineup had at least 2 hits except for DDJ, and well, the bullpen wasn't great, but we won the game.  Obviously Gil didn't have a perfect game, as the Rangers had plenty of baserunners, but he was able to pitch 6 shutout innings, and I'll never turn down that from my starter.  He also recorded 6 strikeouts, giving him 18 strikeouts in 20 innings.  Gil leads the AL with those 18 strikeouts, not too bad.

The Royals take over first place in the AL Central as they improve their record to 6-4 on the season.  Even more impressive, they have scored 11 more runs than they have allowed (43:32).  A sign which validates their above .500 record.

I said everyone but DDJ had two hits, well Coco didn't, he only had one, but that one hit was a HR.  Coco is now batting a ridiculous .235/.409/.647 on the season.  Remember when I said Coco would be the Royals best hitter this season?  Yeah, I wasn't kidding..

But Coco's game today didn't come close to our HoG, Mr. Teabag.

Hitter of the Game

Mark Teahen had one of the best games of his career tonight, as he was 5-6 with 3 runs and an RBI.  Teahen was a triple short of the cycle as he counted a HR, a 2B and 3 singles amongst his 5 hits.  Teahen will be playing 3B for the next few months as Alex Gordon recovers from his hip surgery, so look for Teahen to step it up at the plate as he settles in to his natural position.

Pitcher of the Game

Gotta be Gil.  Meche pitched 6 scoreless innings allowing 6 hits, none of which went for extra bases.  Gil struck out 6 batters and walked just 2, increasing his K:BB ratio to 18:4, very nice.

As I said earlier, Alex Gordon is expected to miss the next 2 or 3 months, as he had successful hip surgery in Vail, Colorado earlier today.  Mark Teahen will fill in at third for him, and Mitch Maier was recalled from AAA and will probably see some time in the OF while Guillen is still hurt, which will be for another week or so.  It will be interesting to see what roster moves get made once Guillen comes back from the DL.

Tomorrow

Tomorrow Zack tries to maintain his league leading 0.00 ERA, as he'll face Kevin Millwood in a 7:05 central time start.

Just one of those games..

Well I think today was just one of those games.  The pitching was decent, the hitting was okay, there weren't really any defensive mishaps, but due to few lucky situations on both sides the Royals came out the losers.  It was one of those games where I wasn't terribly upset after the loss, I did question a few of Hillman's moves, but who cares, he's already proved himself a moron, so nothing really surprised me today.

As I stated yesterday, I figured a pitcher like Laffey would come in and just slice and dice our lineup, and he basically did.  We got to their bullpen for 2 runs, but their offense just came surging back anyway.  Kyle Farnsworth is the boob of the season so far, and he reminds me of Ambiroix Burgos, or at least his fastball does.  Sure, it's 94-96, but when it's that straight, it's supremely hittable.

Trey wasn't afraid to pinch hit players late in the game, which was reassuring, and while no one wants to see TPJ and Bloomquist together in the game, at least Hillman understands that Ponson is a groundball pitcher and the defense behind him is important.

Some might be upset at Teahen for getting thrown out by Choo trying to turn the single into the double.  Personally, I think it was a good aggressive base running decision however.  The Royals were down by 2 at that point and a leadoff double in the 8th would have increased the chances of winning the game.  Although Choo is left handed and he was ranging to his right, making it more of a difficult throw, he does have one of the better arms in the game and gunned down Teahen.  Did it cost the Royals the game?  Maybe.  Am I upset by Teahen's running?  Not at all.

Hitter of the Game

I was teetering between Mike Jacobs and Coco Crisp and I think I'm going to go with Mike Jacobs.  Crisp did walk twice (almost 3 times, you know what I mean if you saw the game) and hit a triple and scored 2 runs, but Jacobs took a walk to load the bases as well as hitting a solo HR after Mark Teahen got thrown out trying to take the extra base.  Overall a good game for both, but I'll stick with Jacobs who pinch hit for Butler in the 6th.

Pitcher of the Game

I'm gonna stick with Sir Sidney here.  I was very distraught when I heard he was making the club, but he really has been impressive.  His fastball has good movement to it, and if he could figure out his control just a little more he could really step in and be one of the better #4 pitchers in the AL central.  I'm not saying he's there yet, I'm just saying I do see some potential.

Tomorrow 

The Royals are off Thursday.

Royals pitching is leading the league in Ks.. nice..

What a game.  Tonight reminds me of games the Royals have been in in the past, except that it is usually the Royals who lose.  While the approach with Pavano on the hill wasn't great, they still managed 8 hits off of him in 6 innings, which isn't an awful number.  The strikeouts have got to go down and the walks have to go up, which did happen once we got to their bullpen (4 bb, 0 k).  There was a consistent approach to drive the ball up the middle and also to shorten the swings with 2 strikes, which is reassuring.

On the other hand, the pitching was good.  5.2 innings 3 runs is probably somewhere very near where Kyle will end up this season, I imagine, probably slightly better.  The 5 K's is nice, and the pitching staff as a whole has been absolutely awesome this year, as we lead the entire league in strikeouts.  John Buck was the man tonight, and I really hope he gets to start a few games in a row and see if he can put it together.  Kelly Shoppach finally broke through last year after showing flashes in the past in his age 28 season, which is how old Buck will be for the majority of this season.  Another positive about Buck's performance was the fact that Joakim the Dream didn't have to pitch in three consecutive outings, though I do like the fact that Trey isn't afraid of bringing him in three straight games.

Hitter of the Game

John Buck.  2-4 with 2 runs scored and 5 RBI on 2 home runs including  a grand slam.  He also threw out Josh Barfield.  Well, he didn't really throw out Josh Barfield, but we got the call anyway.  There's that Buck-Karma for you.  Buckarma.. interesting..

Pitcher of the Game

Juan Cruz recorded his 2nd hold of the season with 2 scoreless innings pitched tonight.  Cruz gave up just a single as he struck out 3 batters and walked none.  Cruz has yet to allow a run this season.

Tomorrow 

Sir Sidney takes on Jeremy Sowers tomorrow in a 1:10 start.  Interesting pitching matchup, definitely.   Sowers is the type of lefty who could slice and dice our lineup, especially in a day game after a night game, I think.  We'll have to make sure we focus at the plate and work the count.

No comments from yesterday's post, so I'll ask again.  What would you like to see me write about as far as minor leagues go?  Focus on a certain team, a certain player, rotate through?  All ideas are welcome.  Thanks for reading.

Ponson debuts in minor league game as Royals cruise in Tucson

Sir Sidney Ponson made his debut today, pitching 5 solid innings.  Ponson allowed just one run on a solo homer, struck out three and walked none.  Ponson needed just 49 pitches to get through those 5 innings as he did not pitch more than 4 pitches to any one batter.  Time will tell us if Ponson really has anything left in the tank, but for now, you couldn't ask for a much better debut from the veteran sinkerballer.

At the same time Sir Sidney was debuting, the Royals were off in Tucson facing the Arizona Diamondbacks.  Meche lasted just 3 2/3 innings, wasting 82 pitches in the process.  Vintage Gil Meche, one might say.  The good news was that 8 players had multi-hit games, as the Royals banged out 22 hits as a team.  those 22 hits were good for 13 runs as they beat the d-backs 13-6.

The offense was easily the better side of the team today, as 7 of the 22 hits went for extra bases.  Butler and Maier led the XBH charge as Butler had a home run and a double and Maier had two doubles.  The hitters struck out 6 times and managed just 3 walks, however.  Fairly disappointing numbers for such an offensive game.  Teahen, Colon, and Tommy Murphy all made errors as well.  Teahen did manage three hits today, however, driving his spring line up to .484/.543/1.065 with 5 home runs.

As a whole, the pitching wasn't THAT bad.  The pitchers allowed 6 runs on 13 hits, with half of those runs being allowed by Gil Meche.  Gil also allowed 8 hits in his 3 2/3 innings.  The pitchers did strike out 9 and walk just 4, an encouraging sign.  In fact, only the three runs allowed by Gil were earned, as the other three (one by Jamey Wright, two by Yaushiko Yabuta) were unearned.  

Hitter of the Game

Lots of good options here today, but I'm going to go with Billy Butler.  Billy the kid was 2 for 6 with 3 runs scored and 5 RBI.  Billy did not draw a walk or strike out.  His two hits were a double and a home run.  The double was off of Travis Blackley and the home run was off of Evan MacLane.  Billy's spring line sits at .341/.408/.614.

Pitcher of the Game

Pitcher of the game today will be Roman Colon.  Roman earned his first hold of the season as he pitched a scoreless 7th and 8th innings today.  Roman gave up just one hit, a double to Chris Young.  Colon did not walk any and struck out one.  Roman's spring ERA sits at a breezy 0.93. 

Tomorrow

The Royals will host the LA Angels of Anaheim at the Surprise complex tomorrow.  First pitch is scheduled for 3:05 central time.  Horacio Ramirez will get the nod for the Royals.  He will face off against John Lackey.  Also scheduled to pitch are Robinson Tejada and Lenny DiNardo.