Patience is Key..

Well, the Royals won again today, and now sit at 7-4 and atop the AL Wildcard leaderboard.  Obviously, we're 11 games into the year and it's WAY too early to make any assumptions about the 2011 season.. However, the Royals have avoided their characteristic slow start this season and now come home for an 8 game home stand which sees them facing the Mariners and the Indians (losers of 2 in a row).  Theoretically, the Royals could win 6 games and see themselves sitting at the top of the division almost a month into the season.  This would be great news.  It would be a testament to the young(ish) players the Royals brought in or called up for this season.. Ka'aihue, Francouer, Cabrera, etc. have all been contributors to this point.  Even players like Chris Getz and Matt Treanor have made impacts.  This has all been great and really fun to watch, but do not let it trick you into thinking it would be okay to rush our prospects.

It has been clear that many baseball teams have underperformed to this point this season.  The Royals may very well take advantage of all this bad baseball and actually finish .500 this year, I'm not predicting it, but I'm certainly willing to offer up the possibility that it could happen.  What I am most afraid of for this season is not losing 100 games, it is rushing players like Eric Hosmer and Mike Montgomery to the big leagues.  Mike Moustakas and Lorenzo Cain are basically locks to see the bigs sometime before the All Star Break this season, because they have both spent time previous to this season in AAA.  Eric Hosmer, however is 21 years old and has only played in ~50 games in AA.  He needs to spend the whole season (or at least until September) in AAA.  You can not leave a player in the minors too long (and even if you could, one season certainly would not be the cutoff point).  However, you CERTAINLY can rush a player to the bigs too soon.. (see ANY of the Royals top prospects over the last decade).  By bringing Hosmer to the majors this year you gain NOTHING.  It would involve sitting/trading one of Billy Butler or Kila Ka'aihue and there is no reason to do that until next offseason.  Give both of those players a year to hit and show what they can do before you decide which you would like to keep and which you would like to trade away.

The same mantra goes for Mike Montgomery and all of our young starting pitching.  Give them each a season in AAA to hone their craft, certainly they will only get better over time.  Our rotation is not good at this point, but we aren't planning on winning the world series this season yet either.  I can think of a situation MAYBE where a pitcher gets hurt and goes down in mid/late July in which I might be okay with bringing up a young hurler, but we can cross that bridge when we get to it.  At this point I'd like anyone under the age of 23 to stay in the minors this season, please.

As an aside, scouts and statisticians can agree that players peak when they are 27-32 (or so).  Don't you want to hang on to our young players for all or at least most of this time period?  You're not hurting yourself by being patient, but you could easily ruin this whole "The Process" by bringing players up before their time.

Thanks for reading.

The Next Coming of Rick Ankiel?

I'm sure you've heard the story by now of Rick Ankiel the pitcher.  He came up as a phenom and flamed out almost as quickly later that year in the playoffs, due almost solely to a complete lack of command.  In 2000, at the age of 20, Rick Ankiel pitched in 2 playoff games.  He logged a total of 4 innings with a stat line that read: 4 IP, 5 H, 7 ER, 0 HR, 11BB, 5K, and 9 WILD PITCHES.  He literally could not find the glove.  The next season he was up for less than 30 innings in the majors and his career as a pitcher was over.

I bring up this refresher in the history of control blow ups on the mound because Vin Mazzaro had a similar incident on Sunday.  Mazzaro got the start against the Albuquerque Isotopes, but only managed to make it through 2.1 innings.  His line looked like this: 2.1 IP, 2 H, 5 ER, 7 BB, 3K, 1 WP.  Not on the exact same level but pretty eerily close to Ankiel's first playoff start.  Now the good news is that while Mazzaro was somewhat lucky last year, his control wasn't really much of a problem.  The bad news is that his control isn't really that great.  Mazzaro has 213.2 innings pitched in the majors in his career.  He has 89 walks for a BB/9 of 3.7.  When I see that his K/9 is only 5.8 it really makes me nervous.  This could be something that is just flukey and ends up being early season jitters.  But it's definitely something to keep an eye on.  According to this article at Royals.com, Mazzaro will now be passed over his first scheduled start (This Saturday) in lieu of Sean O'Sullivan.

The article states that the Royals want to make sure Mazzaro gets a few quality starts in AAA under his belt before he pitches in the majors this year, even though he won the 5th starter's job in spring training.  This is understandable but it is scary that Sean O'Sullivan will be his replacement.  O'Sullivan is like a worse version of Mazzaro, not many strike outs, too many walks, and he's prone to the long ball.  As Roayls fans we didn't expect to get off to a 6-3 start, but here we are, and we're about to throw another long reliever in to be a starter, just as we have in the past.  There is one bright side to O'Sullivan, he's somewhat young, at only 25 there is a decent chance he may still improve.  But, as like Rany from www.RanyOnTheRoyals.com likes to point out, most good pitchers are just as good in their early 20's as they are in their mid to late 20's.

Time will tell if Mazzaro or O'Sullivan will even be relevant to the Royals future pitching staffs.  Until then, it'll be an interesting story to follow.

2011 Standings Predictions

Below are my predictions for the end-of-the-year standings for the 2011 MLB season.  I have made a few "bold" predictions, mostly because I see some older teams regressing and some young teams taking a step forward.  As all of us Royals fans know, this season won't be nearly as exciting as next year, but hopefully I can check back at the end of the year and see how accurately (or not) I was able to predict this season!   Play Ball!


AL East:
Boston Red Sox
Tampa Bay Rays (Wild Card)
Baltimore Orioles
New York Yankees
Toronto Blue Jays

AL Central:
Minnesota Twins
Chicago White Sox
Detroit Tigers
Kansas City Royals
Cleveland Indians

AL West:
Texas Rangers
Oakland Athletics
Los Angeles Angels
Seattle Mariners

NL East:
Philadelphia Phillies
Atlanta Braves (Wild Card)
Washington Nationals
Florida Marlins
New York Mets

NL Central:
Milwaukee Brewers
Cincinnati Reds
St. Louis Cardinals
Chicago Cubs
Houston Astros
Pittsburgh Pirates

NL West:
San Diego Padres
Colorado Rockies
San Francisco Giants
Los Angeles Dodgers
Arizona Diamondbacks

Thanks for reading!

A New Kind of Stat..

Check back tonight/tomorrow for a post concerning a new kind of statistic I have come up with which will help to determine player efficiency, especially as it pertains to driving in runs. Thanks!

Edit - New post will be up saturday morning.  Thanks for the patience!

Zack Greinke dominates (again), Juan Cruz's new nickname is "The Committee" ??

Doctor's Office

Joakim Soria is injured.  He will not be going on the DL immediately, however, which is encouraging.  Apparently he has some shoulder stiffness which all of the Royals' Brass are saying is not a big deal.  I'll believe it when I see him dominating on the mound again.  Trey Hillman says that he is going to use a closer by committee while Joakim the Dream is injured.  I guess that means Juan Cruz's new nickname is the committee, as he is the only one who should be closing.

It really doesn't get any better than this.

Greinke may have ended his scoreless streak tonight, but who cares?  He's first in the league in almost every pitch category and he continues to dominate.  Allard Baird is smiling somewhere..

I don't think Greinke will continue to go 9 innings 0 earned runs the rest of the year, but if he can even be anywhere close to this he's a lock for the AL Cy Young.  Awesome.

Our offense wasn't awful today either, banging out 8 hits and drawing 4 walks for 6 runs against a pretty good young pitcher.  Teahen and Callaspo both had home runs, which was a nice touch.

Hitter of the Game

We'll go with Mark Teahen who was 1-4 with the 2 run home run in the first inning, which would have been enough runs on its own for the win.  Teahen scored a run himself (obviously) and did not strike out or walk.

Pitcher of the Game

Zack Greinke - 9 ip 3 h 0 er 10 k 1 bb

really?

enough said.

Tomorrow 

Kyle Davies will face Zach Miner tomorrow in a 6:10 start.  Supposedly the Royals have already sold 30,000 tickets, so it should be packed again as it's jersey give-away night.

Lets take a look at 3 minor league hitters who have impressed me so far this spring.  All of them are outfielders.

Derrick Robinson - High A - Wilmington Blue Rocks -  His defense is what he's known for, it's his offense he's been needing to work on.  Tonight Derrick was 2-5 with 1 run scored and 2 strikeouts.  He also stole a base.  On the season Derrick is hitting just .226/.314/.226.  This sounds unimpressive, but he's really not doing too poorly, having scored 10 runs in 14 games and driven in 5 himself.  He is also 9 for 11 in stolen bases in his first 14 games.  He has drawn 8 walks to 12 strikeouts.  Derrick isn't off to a great start, but his stolen bases and walks are what are impressing me so far.  Expect the hitting to come around, I know I do.

Jose Duarte - AA - Northwest Arkansas Naturals - Jose was 0-2 with a walk, a sac bunt and no strikeouts tonight.  He scored a run and stole 3rd base as well.  On the season Jose is hitting .348/.456/.457 which is awesome.  Jose is 24 this season and in his 2nd year of AA so it's expected he'd do well, but I'm very impressed.  Jose has drawn 10 walks to just 6 strikeouts and is 7-7 in stolen bases.  He has scored 9 runs and driven in 4.  Jose is regarded as the best defensive outfielder in the system.  I'd expect him in AAA probably sometime around the all star break.  If you've read my blog at all, you know I'm a huge fan of Jose.

Chris Lubanski - AAA - Omaha Royals - Chris was 0-3 with a walk tonight.  On the season he is hitting .302/.397/.492.  He has scored 15 runs in 16 games and has driven in 8 runs.  He has drawn 10 walks against 15 strikeouts and has 7 extra base hits so far.  He is also 4-4 in stolen bases.  I've obviously written a lot about Chris and you know I'm a fan of his.  If he continues to hit .300/.400/.500 (or very close) expect him in KC at some point this season.

Another late post.. woops

Yesterday's game is proof that the Royals will be nothing this year if not dramatic.  The Royals again lost due to an error by Trey Hillman, namely that Gil Meche should have NEVER pitched as long as he did.  I was fuming about 24 hours ago, but I've had time to settle down and realize that if Trey keeps this up (personally losing 3 games in the first 15) then he'll be gone by the All star break.  As it stands, the Royals will send Zack Greinke to the mound to extend his franchise record scoreless innings streak against the Detroit Tigers and Rick Porcello.  Interesting matchup, I won't get to watch it until after it's over, unfortunately, because of work, but I promise I'll have another update tonight about the game and I'll include some of our "hot" prospects down in the minors (here's a hint, they're 2 centerfielders).

Hitter of the Game

Alberto Callaspo's RBI double was pretty much the most important hit our offense had, though Mitch Maier was equally important in getting on base and then stealing 2nd.  Either way, Bert Reynolds Callaspo is going to be the hitter of the game award winner.

Pitcher of the Game

Gil Meche ended up with a line of 7.1 ip 5 h 4 r 3 er 7 k 3 bb, which isn't bad, but it should have been even better if Trey knew how to manage his bullpen.  Meche "earned" the loss, but he also earned the pitcher of the game award.

Tomorrow

Which is actually "today", but as I said earlier, Greinke and Porcello face off in the battle of the phenoms.  First pitch is at 7:10.  Today will be one of the best games at the K this year, Fireworks friday, buck night, Greinke pitching, weather nice.  Perfect.  Get out there!

Halfway There..

Well, Ponson proved he is awful yet again, but at least Horacio is out of the rotation..

Bannister will start tonight as he was recalled from Omaha yesterday and Doug Waechter was placed on the DL (Forearm Strain.. uh oh).  Sure, a lot of things went the Indians way yesterday (6 double plays by the Tribe for instance) but the sooner Ponson is out of the Rotation the better.

This is why the Royals are halfway to having their ideal rotation.

Hitter of the Game

I guess I'll go with David DeJesus, who was 2-5 with a home run, 3 RBI and 2 runs scored.  David's HR came in the 9th with 2 outs to make the game a 1 run game once again.  The Royals never led after the 1st inning yesterday.

Pitcher of the Game

Robinson Tejada came in and struck out the side without allowing a hit.  He did walk 2, but oh well.  All of the pitching sucked yesterday and I feel like Tejada was the most dominant.

Tomorrow

The Royals face off against the Indians at 6:05 again tomorrow.  Bannister vs. Cliff Lee.

Thanks for reading.

Hillman's Gotta Go..

..And fast.

I'm very frustrated writing this post to the point where it's more difficult than usual.  Trey Hillman cost the Royals the game today, and it was the second time *by my count* this has happened this season, and we're only 12 games in.

The Royals sit at 7-5, and if a normal, even semi-intelligent manager had made the calls these first two weeks there is no doubt in my mind the Royals could be 9-3 and sitting pretty atop the AL Central.  But no, Hillman HAS to use Joakim for the 9th inning when we have a lead.  Let's be honest, Joakim Soria is PROBABLY our best pitcher.  If the Royals need one batter retired, Joakim is the guy.  SO WHY IN THE WORLD DO YOU LIMIT HIS INNINGS? Sure, he pitched 4 straight games, so let him sit two, fine.  But why do you bring in the likes of Jamey Wright and Kyle Farnsuck to pitch instead of Soria?  It's gotta stop.  Soon.

Oh, and more AWFUL news.  Hillman has decided Gil Meche needs an extra day off, so instead of pitching Wednesday on normal rest *like he's done all his career with KC* Trey is going to give Horacio the Ball and throw off Meche's schedule, and essentially forfeit the game.  Boy, if Cliff Lee ever got an opportunity to turn his season around this would be it.  In yesterday's post I talked about what Lee did to the Royals in his 4th start last year.  I can only imagine he's already licking his chops seeing what he can do to us on Wednesday.  If the Tribe scored 22 runs in a game that Wang started, I wonder how many they can score against Horacio.. over/under at 30.. anyone?

Anyway, on to the routine stuff:

Hitter of the Game

DDJ and Jacobs both had good offensive games, and they both had defensive.. err.. miscues.  I'll go with Jacobs for the hitter of the game here, simply because his home run came at a more crucial time, at least by my estimation.  Jacobs was 2-4 with a home run, 2 rbi, 1 run scored and 1 strike out, 0 walks.

Pitcher of the Game

We'll go with Kyle Davies, the innings 3-6 version.  Kyle's line ended up at 6 ip, 3 h, 5 bb, 8 k.  Not bad for a #3 starter.  Davies has become very useful, even in his not-completely-effective current form.  He's one of those players that's very close to putting it all together *I think* and when he does, look out!

Tomorrow

The Royals have off tomorrow, creating a perfect opportunity for DM the GM to fire Hillman the game loser.

Teahen celebrates return to 3rd with 5 hits as Gordon hits the DL..

Tonight was one of those nights when (almost) everything goes right.  The starter had a quality start, everyone in the lineup had at least 2 hits except for DDJ, and well, the bullpen wasn't great, but we won the game.  Obviously Gil didn't have a perfect game, as the Rangers had plenty of baserunners, but he was able to pitch 6 shutout innings, and I'll never turn down that from my starter.  He also recorded 6 strikeouts, giving him 18 strikeouts in 20 innings.  Gil leads the AL with those 18 strikeouts, not too bad.

The Royals take over first place in the AL Central as they improve their record to 6-4 on the season.  Even more impressive, they have scored 11 more runs than they have allowed (43:32).  A sign which validates their above .500 record.

I said everyone but DDJ had two hits, well Coco didn't, he only had one, but that one hit was a HR.  Coco is now batting a ridiculous .235/.409/.647 on the season.  Remember when I said Coco would be the Royals best hitter this season?  Yeah, I wasn't kidding..

But Coco's game today didn't come close to our HoG, Mr. Teabag.

Hitter of the Game

Mark Teahen had one of the best games of his career tonight, as he was 5-6 with 3 runs and an RBI.  Teahen was a triple short of the cycle as he counted a HR, a 2B and 3 singles amongst his 5 hits.  Teahen will be playing 3B for the next few months as Alex Gordon recovers from his hip surgery, so look for Teahen to step it up at the plate as he settles in to his natural position.

Pitcher of the Game

Gotta be Gil.  Meche pitched 6 scoreless innings allowing 6 hits, none of which went for extra bases.  Gil struck out 6 batters and walked just 2, increasing his K:BB ratio to 18:4, very nice.

As I said earlier, Alex Gordon is expected to miss the next 2 or 3 months, as he had successful hip surgery in Vail, Colorado earlier today.  Mark Teahen will fill in at third for him, and Mitch Maier was recalled from AAA and will probably see some time in the OF while Guillen is still hurt, which will be for another week or so.  It will be interesting to see what roster moves get made once Guillen comes back from the DL.

Tomorrow

Tomorrow Zack tries to maintain his league leading 0.00 ERA, as he'll face Kevin Millwood in a 7:05 central time start.

Just one of those games..

Well I think today was just one of those games.  The pitching was decent, the hitting was okay, there weren't really any defensive mishaps, but due to few lucky situations on both sides the Royals came out the losers.  It was one of those games where I wasn't terribly upset after the loss, I did question a few of Hillman's moves, but who cares, he's already proved himself a moron, so nothing really surprised me today.

As I stated yesterday, I figured a pitcher like Laffey would come in and just slice and dice our lineup, and he basically did.  We got to their bullpen for 2 runs, but their offense just came surging back anyway.  Kyle Farnsworth is the boob of the season so far, and he reminds me of Ambiroix Burgos, or at least his fastball does.  Sure, it's 94-96, but when it's that straight, it's supremely hittable.

Trey wasn't afraid to pinch hit players late in the game, which was reassuring, and while no one wants to see TPJ and Bloomquist together in the game, at least Hillman understands that Ponson is a groundball pitcher and the defense behind him is important.

Some might be upset at Teahen for getting thrown out by Choo trying to turn the single into the double.  Personally, I think it was a good aggressive base running decision however.  The Royals were down by 2 at that point and a leadoff double in the 8th would have increased the chances of winning the game.  Although Choo is left handed and he was ranging to his right, making it more of a difficult throw, he does have one of the better arms in the game and gunned down Teahen.  Did it cost the Royals the game?  Maybe.  Am I upset by Teahen's running?  Not at all.

Hitter of the Game

I was teetering between Mike Jacobs and Coco Crisp and I think I'm going to go with Mike Jacobs.  Crisp did walk twice (almost 3 times, you know what I mean if you saw the game) and hit a triple and scored 2 runs, but Jacobs took a walk to load the bases as well as hitting a solo HR after Mark Teahen got thrown out trying to take the extra base.  Overall a good game for both, but I'll stick with Jacobs who pinch hit for Butler in the 6th.

Pitcher of the Game

I'm gonna stick with Sir Sidney here.  I was very distraught when I heard he was making the club, but he really has been impressive.  His fastball has good movement to it, and if he could figure out his control just a little more he could really step in and be one of the better #4 pitchers in the AL central.  I'm not saying he's there yet, I'm just saying I do see some potential.

Tomorrow 

The Royals are off Thursday.