RBI Efficiency: Understanding Opportunity

This post has long been in the works. Not necessarily in the physical sense, but in the mental sense. Ever since reading my first Baseball Prospectus article more than 5 years ago I have longed to have a better understanding of the REAL numbers behind baseball. It's frustrating living in a world full of outdated stats which don't always tell the whole story. None are more frustrating than RBI. I have come up with a way to better compare RBI numbers. I'm going to share this stat with you.

It seems as if almost every year when the discussion for MVP comes up, each candidate's RBI numbers are compared and a winner is determined by whoever has the most. This seems unfair to me. Not every player has the same opportunities to drive in runs. Why penalize a player for having ~5 less RBI when he had the opportunity to drive in 1000 runs, whereas the player who had ~5 more RBI had the opportunity to drive in 1150 runs? These players are clearly not being compared on an even plane. Think about it like this: When deciding a Cy Young Award winner, would you take into account the fact that one pitcher started 3 fewer games? I would. Now, this is slightly different because in a pitching comparison you may take into account the fact that the better pitcher was able to start more games, either by not being injured or not being in the minors, etc. However, when comparing RBI opportunities, both players may have an equal number of games played and even plate appearances, however, one of the players had an opportunity for more RBI simply by his position in the batting order and the success of his teammates.

In order to alleviate the problem that different RBI opportunities create, I propose a new stat. I'm going to call it RBI Efficiency, at least for now. It is a stat that can show how successful a player is at driving in runs compared to the opportunities that he has to drive in runs. This number can be shown as a decimal, but I prefer to show it as a percentage. This percentage literally says that player X will drive in a run XX% of the time he has the opportunity to drive in a run.

The calculation of this stat is actually fairly simple, but I don't believe anyone has come up with it yet due to a lack of statistical information being readily available until recently. www.Baseball-Reference.com has a link to batting split-stats for every major league player, broken down by year. This information is vital to calculate RBI-e. By looking at how many plate appearances each player had in different RBI situations, and then weighing how successful they were versus how successful they could have been, you can come up with their RBI-e.

Later in this post I will break down the 2010 Royals RBI-e, as well as a few other players in the AL for the 2010 season, but for now I will break down how this stat is calculated.

Every time a player comes to bat, he has an opportunity to drive in at least 1 run. This is true no matter the game situation, no matter the outs, and no matter the inning. If the bases are empty, the player has the "opportunity" to drive in 1 run. That is to say, in a perfect (offensive) world, each player would come to bat and hit a solo home run. The goal of baseball is to score runs, and this is the simplest, most efficient way of doing so. Since that player has the "opportunity" to score 1 run, all of his RBI with the bases empty are measured against the number of plate appearances he had. For instance, in 2006, Mark Teahen had 234 plate appearances with the bases empty. He had 8 RBI in such situations, therefore, when calculating his RBI-e you start with his efficiency being 8/234. In reality, a very small percentage or runs are scored this way, and so a player's true efficiency will not very well be reflected by his efficiency with the bases empty.

As we continue to determine a player's RBI-e, I find it helpful to create a small chart that looks something like this:

PA RBI e

empty 234 8 8/234

1 on xxx xx xx/xxx

2 on xxx xx xx/xxx

full xx xx xx/xx

total: xxx/xxxx e: xx.xx%

Continuing with our calculation of Mark Teahen's RBI-e in 2006, he had 146 plate appearances with 1 man on. In those situations, (either with a man on 1st, 2nd, or 3rd) he had the opportunity to drive in 292 runs (again, think of ultimate success as a home run, in this case, a 2 run shot). He drove in 35 RBI. His efficiency with 1 man on was 35/292, giving him a running total of 43/526.

Mark had 51 plate appearances with 2 men on. He could have hit 51 3 run home runs, meaning he had the "opportunity" to drive in 153 RBI. He drove in 22 Runs. This brings his running total to 65/679. Mark had 8 plate appearances with the bases loaded. He had the opportunity for 8 grand slams, for a total of 32 RBI. He drove in 4 runs for an "e" of 4/32.

Mark Teahen's RBI-e in 2006 was 69/711, 0.970, or 9.70%. This is to say Mark Teahen drove in 9.70% of the runs that he had the opportunity to drive in. If we take a look back at our chart from earlier, and finish filling it out, it looks like this:

PA RBI e

empty 234 8 8/234

1 on 146 35 35/292

2 on 51 22 22/153

full 8 4 4/32

total: 69/711 0.970 RBI-e=9.70%

No stat has meaning without understanding how different players compare, but before I break down other players, I'd like to discuss what this stat is meant to do, and its flaws. This stat is NOT meant to determine how well a player did compared to how well an average player might do. To better understand what I mean by this, consider the following. I lump together all of a player's plate appearances with one man on. This may seem counterintuitive at first, because a player is expected to drive in many more runs with a man on third and no outs than he is expected to drive in with a man on first and 2 outs. However, this stat is not meant to weigh individual expectancies, it is simply a tool to help measure different players' efficiency when it comes to driving in runs. You may argue that this puts certain players at a disadvantage, especially those that do not hit home runs very often. I would agree, however, as I discussed earlier, in a perfect world, a home run would be the result of every at bat, and so by putting players who do not hit home runs at a disadvantage, we are simply viewing them in a truer sense of their value when compared to other players.

That being said, let's look at a break down of the 2010 Royals. There were 11 players who drove in at least 30 RBI in 2010. Those players were:

78 Billy Butler

78 Yuniesky Betancourt

77 Jose Guillen

56 Alberto Callaspo

51 Scott Podsednik

43 Wilson Betemit

39 Mitch Maier

37 Jason Kendall

37 David DeJesus

32 Mike Aviles

When you look at RBI totals alone, Butler, Betancourt and Guillen were clearly the standouts. Let's take a look at their RBI-e now.

8.27% Wilson Betemit

8.02% Jose Guillen

7.88% Yuniesky Betancourt

6.98% Billy Butler

5.99% David DeJesus

5.75% Alberto Callaspo

5.71% Mitch Maier

5.65% Scott Podsednik

4.60% Mike Aviles

4.70% Jason Kendall

As you can see, the names at the bottom of the list probably don't surprise you, except maybe Aviles. However, Wilson Betemit being at the top came as a bit of a surprise to me. Betemit drove in 43 runs last season, but he only had the opportunity to drive in 520, which was less than half the amount that Billy Butler had the opportunity to drive in. Wilson Betemit did a better job of utilizing his RBI opportunities than Butler did, and, theoretically, if Betemit had as many opportunities as Butler, he would (should) have driven in more runs. Butler's efficiency is simply not as good as it could have been. In order to gain more perspective let's take a look at how Butler has been since reaching the majors in 2007.

Billy Butler RBI-e

2007 8.74%

2008 7.30%

2009 8.62%

2010 6.98%

As you can see, these numbers bounce around a little bit, he seems to have had some success his rookie year, regressed a bit in his sophomore year and then taken another step forward in 2009. However, last year he regressed a bit again, at least when looking at his ability to drive in runs. Let's take a look at another fairly young player with a similar number of plate appearances in his career.

Evan Longoria RBI-e

2008 9.80%

2009 10.03%

2010 9.23%

Clearly, Longoria does a better job of utilizing his opportunities to drive in runs. In fact, in 2010, Longoria had the opportunity to drive in 1127 runs. Butler had the opportunity to drive in 1117 runs. Butler drove in 78, while Longoria drove in 104. Now that we have a better understanding of efficiency, we can determine that while Butler drove in 26 fewer runs, he had 100 less "opportunities" to drive in a run. When you combine both of these numbers you can see that he was simply not as good as Longoria at driving in runs.

Just for fun, let's take a look at Miguel Cabrera's 2010 season (2010 AL RBI leader). Miguel had the "opportunity" to drive in 1127 runs, which is the exact same number that Evan Longoria could have driven in. However, Miggy drove in 126 runs, while Longoria drove in 104. Miggy's RBI-e Then was 11.18%. He was clearly better than Longoria.

I hope this stat will be useful for helping to determine not only players' seasons as they compare to other players, but also as they compare to their own careers. This stat is not meant to be an end-all, be-all kind of stat, and I doubt you'll find it on the back of a baseball card anytime soon. But it can be a useful tool when comparing different players, especially when looking at players who bat in different spots in the lineup and who play for teams with largely different levels of runs scored. Thanks for reading.

Brett Blows Up, Royals Roar Back..

and I was there to witness it all!

The Royals are now officially 4-0 in games that I've been to this season.. is it safe to say I'm a good luck charm?  I hope so..  

The Royals came back after being down 5-2 in the ninth to win in front of a raucous crowd of 25,024.  While it was a T-Shirt Tuesday, I didn't even remember that it was one when I decided I wanted to go this afternoon.  Brian Bannister came back to earth a bit, as his ERA skyrocketed to 2.75 from 1.80 after today.  He could have come away with a 6 inning 2 run affair, but some sketchy defense and a mistake to Kelly Shoppach did him in.  

Hitter of the Game

This might be the toughest choice of the year, as it really could be argued that any one of about 6 players could win the award.  I think I'll go with Mike Jacobs, which is interesting because I was kind of surprised he was even in the lineup tonight.  Since Cliff Lee was starting I figured we'd see a Buck/Olivo game, as they both hit lefties well.  However, Jacobs ended up paying off as he was 2-4 with a strikeout and no walks.  Jacobs drove in 1 run and scored 2.  His HR in the 9th inning really got the rally started, and that's why he gets the award.

Pitcher of the Game

Again, not an easy award to assign.  Banny gave up 5 runs over 6 innings, so it won't be him.  Horacio threw 2 scoreless innings and Farnsworth threw a scoreless ninth.  I think I'll go with Kyle Farnsworth, simply because he didn't let a 3 run deficit affect his game.  He came in, threw 14 pitches and got the ball back to the Indians.  He didn't give up any hits or walks and didn't strike anyone out.

Tomorrow

Gil Meche starts for the Royals tomorrow against Fausto Carmona and the Indians.  First pitch is at 7:10.

Minor League Notables

Brayan Pena had 3 of the O-Royals 8 hits tonight.  He was 3-4 with a HR, 1 RBI and 1 Run.  He is batting .339 in AAA so far.

Kurt Mertins was 4-5 tonight with a triple and 3 rbi.  He did not score a run or strike out.

Jordan Parraz was 1-2 with an RBI triple and 3 walks.

Blake Johnson started for AA Northwest Arkansas tonight, he pitched 6 shutout innings allowing 5 hits, 1 walk and 3 strikeouts.  His ERA is down to 4.21 after tonight.

John Bale made another AA appearance tonight as he pitched 2 perfect innings tonight with 2 strikeouts.  His ERA is at 1.35 for AA so far.

Derrick Robinson's AVG is up to .246 as he had 2 hits and took a walk tonight.  One of his hits was a double.  He stole 2 bases tonight and his stolen base total is up to 20 so far this season.

Mike Moustakas had a 3 hit tonight as he was 3-5.  He did not drive in any runs or score any runs, nor did he walk or strikeout.

Paulo Orlando also had 3 hits, 1 of his hits was for a triple and he scored 2 runs but did not drive any in.

Fernando Garcia, a 20 year old 2nd baseman from Puerto Rico, was 2-4 with a triple and a walk tonight for A Burlington Bees.  He is batting .320 so far this season.  

Thoughts on Trey..

There's been a lot of drama surrounding Trey lately, culminating with Brett's blowup last night on the local news..  My thoughts are that he isn't awful, but my biggest beef with him is that he has been around baseball too much.  He is too typical of a baseball manager.  An intelligent baseball mind knows that it is almost never advantageous to bunt, but Trey still had DDJ bunting in the 4th (I think) inning tonight.  That's the same DDJ that hit the game-tying triple in the 9th inning.  Let the boys swing!   I don't hate Trey, I just wish that he would manage with the actual facts.  But I realize that very few managers do this.. so whatever.

Thanks for reading!

Another Greinke Gem..

Wow.

Tonight was easily the best baseball game I have ever seen in person.  It had everything, pitching, a home run, good defense, bad defense, an awesome crowd..

and Zack Greinke.

Seriously, who knew Greinke was even capable of this type of stuff?  He's now 6-0 with a 0.40 ERA and 54 strikeouts to 8 walks.  Cy Young Award type of start, to say the least.  Imagine that Greinke isn't really even in the prime of his career yet, especially as a pitcher, and that we have him for the next 4 seasons, at least, and I just get chills.

Colon had some K's but he wasn't really that good, I feel like the offense wasn't as good as it could have been.  The pitching on the other hand, was as good as it gets.

Greinke gave up 6 hits, but I think 2 of them could have maybe been scored as errors.  Even so, there was only a few hard hit balls all night, and any time a pitcher throws a shutout with 10 strikeouts and 0 walks in 104 pitches (78 strikes) you know your pitcher is on.

Hitter of the Game

I'll go with David DeJesus.  His home run really changed the game for the offense, I think.  David was 2-4 with a run, an rbi, a k and no walks.  He is now batting .253 on the season.

Pitcher of the Game

Zack Greinke.  No explanation necessary.

Tomorrow

The Royals finish up the short 2 game series with the Sox tomorrow when Kyle Davies will take on Gavin Floyd.  

Minor League Notables

Eric Hosmer hit his 6th double of the season tonight as he was 2-3 with a walk.

Sam Runion started and threw 5 solid innings, allowing 1 run over 5 innings on 4 hits, 2 bb and 2 k.

Chris Lubanski continued his good start, as he had 2 of the O-Royals' 4 hits, both singles.  He did not strikeout or walk, his average so far is .318.

Doug Waechter pitched in a rehab outing, going 1 scoreless inning allowing 2 hits, 1 bb and no k's.

As I write this, the Naturals are tied 4-4 in the 12th inning with the Arkansas Travelers.  

Brian McFall, Joe Dickerson, and Corey Smith have 3 hits each.  McFall and Dickerson have a double each.

Thanks for reading!

Ponson Experiment Over?

I must stress I have no exclusive knowledge as to what Dayton Moore and Trey Hillman are thinking.  I just know that when you have a team that is 12-11 and a starting pitcher that is 0-4 with an ERA above 7, it is unlikely that said pitcher will be in the rotation for long.

Needless to say Ponson was awful tonight.  disclaimer: I did not actually watch the game.  I did look at the box score, though, which lists Ponson as: 4.1 IP 9 H 7 ER 1 BB 1 K 1 HR.  Awful.  10 baserunners in 4.1 innings is way too much, especially when 5 of those baserunners reached base with extra base hits.  Even if Hoch isn't ready yet, there is no doubt in my mind that the Royals would be better off with Duckworth, Matt Wright, Heath Phillips, Lenny DiNardo, hell, maybe even Bruce Chen.  Ponson had his shot, and he has failed.  Time to move on.

Speaking of moving on..

The Royals drew 0 walks tonight and struck out 8 times.  I know we're facing the Twins.. but Really?

Really?

Ugh! So frustrating..

Hitter of the Game

HoG goes to David DeJesus.  Jose Guillen had more hits, but DDJ contributed to more runs.  On the night David was 2-4 with 3 RBI and a run scored.  He did not strike out or walk.  One of his hits was a double, his third of the season.

Pitcher of the Game

Wow.  Horacio Ramirez earned the PoG award tonight.  He needed just 13 pitches to get 5 outs, including a strikeout.  He did not give up a walk, hit, or run.  With this impressive outing, he dropped his ERA to 9.00.  Nice.

Tomorrow

Brian Bannister takes on Glen Perkins in Minnesota tomorrow night.  First pitch is at 6:05, Banny will go for his 3rd win of the season.

Minor League Notables

AAA Omaha and AA Northwest Arkansas were both rained out tonight

Derrick Robinson was 1-4 with 3 Ks and a run scored.  He did steal his 12th base of the season, however.

Jeff Bianchi was 2-3 with a double and a run scored, he was caught stealing for the 2nd time this season.

Eric Hosmer scored the only run in a 1-0 Burlington Bees win.  He was 1-2 with a walk and a double.  He is batting .231/.354/.308 in 65 at bats this season.

Thanks as always for reading!

Playing Catch Up

I missed posting on the last three games due to so much homework and studying, but I do have updates for the award winners.

Hitter of the Game

David DeJesus - David was 2-4 with the only RBI Tuesday.  He had a double and did not walk or strike out

Billy Butler - Billy had the second best game of the season for a hitter (I count Teahen's 5 hit showing as #1) when he was 4-5 with a double and two home runs on Wednesday.  Butler scored 4 runs and drove in 4 runs, he did not strike out or walk.

John Buck - John had an awesome game today, driving in 5 of the Royals 8 runs.  John was 3-3 with two triples and a double and a sacrifice fly.  Interestingly enough, John did not score a run.  He did not strike out or walk.

Pitcher of the Game

Robinson Tejada - Tejada pitched 2.1 scoreless innings Tuesday after Meche left with a sore back.  Tejada gave up 2 hits including a double, walked 1 and struck out two.

Zack Greinke - Zack had his worst start of the year and still earns pitcher of the game award for Wednesday.  He allowed 2 runs in 7 innings on 5 hits and 2 walks.  Greinke struck out 8, and he still leads the AL in the triple crown.

Juan Cruz - While Davies wasn't bad, (3 runs in 5.2 innings) I'll go with Juan Cruz, who proved the Royals would be OK if Joakim had to miss an extended amount of time.  Juan earned his first save of the season (and the 2nd of his career) as he pitched a 1-2-3 scoreless ninth, striking out one hitter.

Tomorrow - Sidney Ponson will take on Kevin Slowey tomorrow night at the Metrodome.  First pitch is at 7:10, normal posts should resume tomorrow.

Thanks for reading!

Return of the Professor..

What a game.

After the heartbreaker last night, the Royals really mended our relationship today with their 3rd shutout of the season.  By comparison, the Royals didn't get their 3rd shutout until May 4th, last season.  It came against the Indians, of all teams.

Mr. Bannister was not amazing tonight, but he didn't walk too many hitters, and his pitch count stayed decent.  He probably needs to continue to attack more / nibble less, but it's hard to pick on a guy for 6 shutout innings and 4 singles allowed.  He might not be one of the "big 3" who can pick up a strikeout almost at will, but if he maintains an ERA sub 4.15 then the Royals will have the best pitching staff in the A.L.  (assuming the big 3 continue to pitch at their ridiculous paces.)

This brings up the question.. when is Hoochie mama coming up?  Soon, I hope..

Read yesterday's post if you want to see what I said about how well Cliff Lee would do against the Royals..  It wasn't the 3 hit 9 k shutout he threw last year, but no one will deny Mr. Clifford Phifer Lee pitched a very good game today.

The offense needs to draw more walks, period.  Billy's in the first inning was nice, because it came after falling behind, but seriously, one walk?  Pathetic.  Cliff Lee threw 122 pitches, 85 of them were for strikes..  While he was pounding the strike zone, if the Royals decided to not swing first pitch so often we would have a better chance of making Cliff throw more outside the strike zone and getting to the bullpen more quickly, which should be every offense's goal.

Hitter of the Game

Like yesterday, I really struggled with this one today..  DDJ drove in the "winning" run but was 0-3..  Bloomquist drove in the other run on a bloop single.. Callaspo had 2 hits but no runs or RBI..  I think I'll settle with Coco Crisp, who really set the table today in the first with his second leadoff double in as many days.  Coco ended up with 2 hits in 4 at bats, and while he didn't walk for what seems like the first game this season (it's not..) he also didn't strike out.  He scored a run but didn't capitalize on an opportunity to drive some in during the 7th inning, oh well, he earns today's award.  In reality, the offense wasn't that great and the award should probably go to Butler, if anyone, simply for taking the lone walk.. Oh well.

Pitcher of the Game

I was considering using Soria simply because he finally got to pitch, but we'll go with the Professor, he wasn't dominant, but he was very good and threw 6 innings of shutout, 1 walk, 4 hit baseball in the big leagues.  Something that is very commendable and earns him the pitcher of the game award.

Tomorrow

It's an early game tomorrow, with Gil Meche facing Anthony "I wear my hat low" Reyes.  First pitch as at 11:05 central time, so don't forget!

Also, I fully intend to include some minor league stats/analysis very soon, I just haven't quite picked a format and had the time to start it yet.  Fear not, it shall arrive!

Thanks for reading!

Halfway There..

Well, Ponson proved he is awful yet again, but at least Horacio is out of the rotation..

Bannister will start tonight as he was recalled from Omaha yesterday and Doug Waechter was placed on the DL (Forearm Strain.. uh oh).  Sure, a lot of things went the Indians way yesterday (6 double plays by the Tribe for instance) but the sooner Ponson is out of the Rotation the better.

This is why the Royals are halfway to having their ideal rotation.

Hitter of the Game

I guess I'll go with David DeJesus, who was 2-5 with a home run, 3 RBI and 2 runs scored.  David's HR came in the 9th with 2 outs to make the game a 1 run game once again.  The Royals never led after the 1st inning yesterday.

Pitcher of the Game

Robinson Tejada came in and struck out the side without allowing a hit.  He did walk 2, but oh well.  All of the pitching sucked yesterday and I feel like Tejada was the most dominant.

Tomorrow

The Royals face off against the Indians at 6:05 again tomorrow.  Bannister vs. Cliff Lee.

Thanks for reading.

Hillman's Gotta Go..

..And fast.

I'm very frustrated writing this post to the point where it's more difficult than usual.  Trey Hillman cost the Royals the game today, and it was the second time *by my count* this has happened this season, and we're only 12 games in.

The Royals sit at 7-5, and if a normal, even semi-intelligent manager had made the calls these first two weeks there is no doubt in my mind the Royals could be 9-3 and sitting pretty atop the AL Central.  But no, Hillman HAS to use Joakim for the 9th inning when we have a lead.  Let's be honest, Joakim Soria is PROBABLY our best pitcher.  If the Royals need one batter retired, Joakim is the guy.  SO WHY IN THE WORLD DO YOU LIMIT HIS INNINGS? Sure, he pitched 4 straight games, so let him sit two, fine.  But why do you bring in the likes of Jamey Wright and Kyle Farnsuck to pitch instead of Soria?  It's gotta stop.  Soon.

Oh, and more AWFUL news.  Hillman has decided Gil Meche needs an extra day off, so instead of pitching Wednesday on normal rest *like he's done all his career with KC* Trey is going to give Horacio the Ball and throw off Meche's schedule, and essentially forfeit the game.  Boy, if Cliff Lee ever got an opportunity to turn his season around this would be it.  In yesterday's post I talked about what Lee did to the Royals in his 4th start last year.  I can only imagine he's already licking his chops seeing what he can do to us on Wednesday.  If the Tribe scored 22 runs in a game that Wang started, I wonder how many they can score against Horacio.. over/under at 30.. anyone?

Anyway, on to the routine stuff:

Hitter of the Game

DDJ and Jacobs both had good offensive games, and they both had defensive.. err.. miscues.  I'll go with Jacobs for the hitter of the game here, simply because his home run came at a more crucial time, at least by my estimation.  Jacobs was 2-4 with a home run, 2 rbi, 1 run scored and 1 strike out, 0 walks.

Pitcher of the Game

We'll go with Kyle Davies, the innings 3-6 version.  Kyle's line ended up at 6 ip, 3 h, 5 bb, 8 k.  Not bad for a #3 starter.  Davies has become very useful, even in his not-completely-effective current form.  He's one of those players that's very close to putting it all together *I think* and when he does, look out!

Tomorrow

The Royals have off tomorrow, creating a perfect opportunity for DM the GM to fire Hillman the game loser.

I'm dreaming.. Right...?

Whew, after a long day I can barely keep my eyes open!  Then again, why would I want to, knowing that TPJ made the roster.. maybe if I go to sleep I'll wake up and it'll all have been a dream.. TPJ making the roster.. HoSucky and Sucky Ponson making the rotation..  Yeah.. All a dream..

Anyway, we'll look at the game quickly, but expect a longer/better post tomorrow.  I'm just not able to write much tonight!  Sorry!

The Game

Zack Greinke struck out 7 but allowed 4 runs on 6 hits and 2 walks in 5 innings.  Greinke's ERA is at 9.21, so we'll see if he can turn it around for the season, as this was the last game he will pitch in before he will pitch Wednesday in Chicago.  The Rangers outhit the Royals 9-7 and also scored more runs, winning 7-2.  The hitters managed 5 walks and struck out 8 times, not great, but an improvement.  The pitchers struck out 12 Rangers but walked 5.  The strikeouts are fine, but they could stand to walk less hitters.  

Hitter of the Game

David DeJesus was 2-3 today with 2 doubles, netting him the HoG award.  David had 1 RBI, 1 run, 1 K and 1 BB.  He is batting .303 on the spring.  David was in the two hole tonight.  I think I really like him there.

Pitcher of the Game

Hamulack pitched a third of an inning.  But he was the only pitcher who was successful, in my opinion, so he will be the pitcher of the game.  He gave up 0 hits and struck out and walked none as he retired the only batter he faced and stranded his lone inherited runner.  Hamulack has a 2.45 ERA this spring, but it appears he will probably not make the 25 man roster.

Tomorrow

The Royals will play the Rangers in their first game in a big league ball park tomorrow at 1:05 central time.  Kyle Davies gets the nod for the Royals, while Anna Benson's husband will start for the Rangers.  Joakim Soria is also scheduled to pitch.

Thanks for reading!

Don't call it a comeback.. Why Coco might carry the Royals in '09..

The Royals continued their good play of late as they beat the Chi-Sox 9-3 in front of 4,645 fans.  

The hitters managed 6 extra base hits and 6 singles for a total of 12 hits.  The hitters had 4 walks and 4 strikeouts as well.  The pitchers gave up 7 hits (2 of them for extra bases) and 3 runs.  The hitters struck out just four and walked 2 batters.

Hitter of the Game

I'm going to go a different route in naming today's hitter of the game.  While he didn't score or drive a run in, he did continue his AWESOME spring.  Coco Crisp will be today's hitter of the game.  Coco was 1-1 with two walks and no strikeouts.  Coco's spring line sits at .391/.545/.609.  Not too shabby for a defense-first centerfielder.

Pitcher of the Game

Kyle Davies continued his impressive spring as he went 4 scoreless innings giving up just one single while striking out 2 and walking 1.  Kyle's spring ERA sits at a measly 0.71.  He earned a save as he went the final three innings.

Tomorrow

The Royals will have 2 games tomorrow, their only split squad games of the spring.  Robinson Tejada will take on Vicente Padilla when the Royals host the Rangers.  Zack Greinke will take on Yovani Gallardo as the Royals will play visitors to the Brew Crew.  First pitch for both games is scheduled for 3:05 Central Time.

Covelli Loyce Crisp

Much has been discussed about Coco's background already.  I'm sure you've heard the tale.  Coco's Dad was a boxer, his Mom was a sprinter, and the rest of his family was also connected to athletics somehow.  While I love all of this background information and the fact that Coco is the type of player that plays his heart out no matter the situation, it is not why I believe Coco Crisp might be the biggest surprise on the Royals this year.  It is not why he is my breakout (again) candidate of the year amongst our outfielders. 

There will be a lot of articles written this spring telling you that Coco is finally healthy again.  There will be some explaining that he never got comfortable in Boston and that the CF job was handed to Jacoby Ellsbury and stripped from him unjustly.  I believe in all of these things, (well except for the last one), but most importantly, I believe in Coco Crisp.

Coco has a skill set very similar to David DeJesus.  David has hit for a higher average in his career (and had a better OBP), but their power numbers are similar, and Coco is much better at stealing bases and by all accounts plays much better defensively.  Coco is basically a true "centerfielder" version of the tweener that David DeJesus is.

But this isn't a comparison of the two players, no sirree.  It is an argument as to why I think Coco might just win comeback player of the year.  

While I usually don't put much emphasis on spring numbers, Coco has really impressed me so far.  Coco has drawn 9 walks against just 3 strikeouts, and has a line of .391/.545/.609.  Another encouraging sign is that most of these numbers have come against pitchers vying for the rotation of their perspective squads, as Coco has started in centerfield in each of his 11 appearances.  In fact, Coco is 2nd in walks this spring, trailing Albert Pujols by 1.  No other player has at least 8 walks.

But sure, it's just spring, and it's early spring at that.  Coco could go on to strikeout in every remaining at bat he has, right?  Not so fast.  I'm a big believer in carryover from the 2nd half of the previous season.  I feel like baseball is a game of trends, and the numbers from a player's second half are a much better indicator of the next season than the entire numbers from the previous season.  Well, how did Coco do in the 2nd half of last season?  I'm glad you asked.

Last season, in 175 plate appearances after the all star break, Coco hit .315/.392/.403 with 20 walks against 26 strike outs.  This line was good for a 794 OPS.  

By comparison, our four starting outfielders for the last 2 months of the season (DeJesus, Maier, Guillen, Teahen) posted 792, 634, 752, and 692 OPS respectively.

So, basically, if Coco Crisp had been a Royal last season and if he had posted the same stat line (a lot of ifs, I know) then he would have been the Royals best offensive and defensive outfielder.  Interesting.

If I don't have you sold yet, then take a look at this.  Before Crisp went to Boston, before he was injured and pressured and criticized and put under the microscope of the Boston media, Coco was one of, if not the best young centerfield prospects in the game.

I'm talking about Coco's 2004 and 2005 seasons in Cleveland, of course.

Let's take a quick gander at Coco's numbers from 2004 and 2005 in comparison to the Royal's primary centerfielders during those years, Mr. Carlos Beltran and Mr. David DeJesus.

2004:

Coco - .297/.344/.446

Beltran - .267/.367/.548

DeJesus - .287/.360/.402

2005: 

Coco - .300/.345/.465

Beltran - .266/.330/.414

DeJesus - .293/.359/.445

At first glance, you might notice Beltran's awesome year in 2004, but if you look closer, you might realize that Coco easily outplayed him in 2005.  I'm as big a fan of OBP as anyone I know, but the 51 points of SLG that Coco holds over Carlos is easily worth the 15 points of OBP he gives up.  

So what is the point I'm trying to make?  The point is that in 2005, Coco Crisp was essentially a better outfielder than Carlos Beltran.  Oh, and Carlos Beltran is almost 3 years older than Coco.  Sure, they're completely different players, Coco is a player who hits for a high average, and has to in order to maintain his value while Beltran is a power and OBP guy.  But in the end, if Coco can end up being 3/4 the player that Carlos is (while earning 1/4 of Beltran's yearly salary) then I think the Royals will be very well off.

So do I have a prediction for Coco's line this year?  Sure I do.  But I'm not sure I'm ready to divulge it yet and embarrass myself.  I do, however, believe in Covelli Loyce Crisp.

And I think that you should too.

Mitch Maier hits an inside the park home run as the Royals trounce the Mariners..

The Royals beat the Mariners 9-2 today in Surprise.  The Royals were down early as Seattle scored one run each in the 2nd and 3rd, but roared back to take the lead for good when they scored 6th in the 4th.  They capped the 9 run day off with 3 more in the bottom of the 8th.

The Offense

The Royals managed 11 hits and 9 runs in 8 innings of work today.  2 of the hits were XBH, both were HRs (Butler, Maier).  The hitters today walked 5 times against 4 strikeouts, getting back to the habit they had earlier this spring of walking more than striking out, an awesome accomplishment as a team.  Brayan Pena was thrown out trying to steal second and Chris Lubanski was picked off of first base.  Mitch Maier made the only error.  

The Pitching

The pitching today gave up 2 runs on 10 hits.  Chris Shelton and Jeff Clement had the lone extra base hits, both doubles.  The pitchers gave up just 2 walks while striking out 13, easily their best numbers in those two categories of the spring.  One note is that Mike Sweeney got the start at DH batting 4th against his old team, Mike went 2-3 with a run and a strikeout.

Hitter of the Game

The hitter of the game award goes to Billy Butler, who smacked a 3 run homerun.  Billy was 1-3 with 1 run and 3 rbi.  Billy's average this spring sits at an even .300.  Other notables were Mitch Maier who had an inside-the-park-homer and David DeJesus who was 2-3 with a run.

Pitcher of the Game

The pitcher of the game award goes to Heath Phillips.  Heath pitched 2 scoreless innings, allowing just one single while striking out 3.  Heath's ERA for the spring sits at 1.13 in 8 innings.  Juan Cruz also made his debut today pitching a scoreless inning, giving up one hit and striking out two.

Tomorrow

The Royals will host the Chicago White Sox in Surprise tomorrow at 3:05 Central Time tomorrow.  The Sox will start Clayton Richard.  Horacio Ramirez gets the nod for the Royals.  Following the lefty will be Kyle Davies.

Thanks as always for reading.  Expect my candidate for the "breakout candidate of the year" in the outfield tomorrow. 

DeJesus drives in 4..

The Royals beat the Indians, 9-4 today.

The Royals got off to an early lead, pegging 3 runs on Aaron Laffey in the first inning and 4 runs on Jack Cassel in the second.  Royals hitters had 5 XBH, including 3 HR (DeJesus, Jacobs, Shealy).  The hitters also drew 6 walks against 7 strikeouts and managed 12 hits.  John Buck had the lone error on an errant throw.  The Royals pitchers gave up 4 runs (3 earned) on 10 hits. The pitchers struck out just 4, but walked none.  

Hitter of the Game

The hitter of the game award could go to any number of players, but I'm going to David DeJesus today.  David was 2-2 with a sacrifice fly.  David scored 2 runs and had 4 RBI.  Other notables: Shealy, Jacobs, Buck, Bloomquist.

Pitcher of the Game 

The pitcher of the game award will to Kyle Davies, who pitched 3.2 solid innings, giving up 2 runs (1 earned).  Kyle gave up 4 hits and struck out 3, walking none.  Davies also gave up a home run to Beau Mills in the 4th inning.

Tomorrow

Zack Greinke gets the nod tomorrow when the Royals host the Milwaukee Brewers in Surprise at 3:05 central time.  Robinson Tejada, Roman Colon, and Matt Wright are also scheduled to pitch tomorrow, while the Brew Crew will start Yovani Gallarado.

Thanks for reading.

Johnny Giavotella, your 2012 AL MVP?

The Game

The Royals faced off against the Angels today in their fifth Spring Training game.  They got down early due to Gil Meche's disappointing first inning, and tied it up in the top of the 5th just to relinquish the lead once again in the bottom of the 5th to complete a topsy-turvy game.  Today was also the day the Royals lost all of their WBC players: Jose Guillen and Miguel Olivo to the Dominican Republic, Mark Teahen to Canada, Lenny DiNardo to Italy, Joakim Soria to Mexico, Dylan Lindsay to South Africa, Mike Aviles to Puerto Rico, and the Royals newest addition, Bruce Chen, to Panama.  Which urges the question, can you lose a player to the WBC if you never had him before the report date anyway?  

Meche

There's been a lot of post-game reporting that Gil Meche's back isn't/doesn't hurt.  Gil better do whatever he can to make sure that this truly is the case, because our season will rely heavily on him.  And so much chatter about a non-injury scares me.  Gil pitched one inning today, as scheduled, giving up 3 earned runs on 4 hits and a walk.  The lone bright spot was his two strikeouts.  

The Relievers

Duckworth, Hamulack and Peralta each gave up a run in their relief appearances as well, further reducing their chances of making the big league squad.  Barrera, Osoria, and Rosa had one scoreless inning each, giving up 0 hits and striking out one, with only Barrera walking one.  Both Barrera and Rosa have yet to give up runs this spring.  Altogether the pitchers issued 6 walks against 7 strikeouts.  Easily the worst numbers yet this spring.

The Offense

Crisp had as many hits as yesterday, zero, but drew three fewer walks.  Hopefully Coco can keep from having too many games like today, because his value is essentially measured in his OBP and his defense.  (Unless he gets back to hitting 15+ home runs).  Royals hitters altogether drew just two walks against 7 strikeouts, and were held to their first home run-less game this spring.

Hitter of the Game

David DeJesus shone brightly in the three hole, going 2-2 with a walk.  David knocked in 1 RBI and came around to score once himself.  Other Notables were Ka'aihue who went 1-1 and John Buck who was 1-2 with a walk and a leadoff double.  (If you haven't noticed yet, anytime John Buck leads off he is a doubles machine.  Next time he is leading off pay close attention because there is something like a 65% chance he will hit a double).

Pitcher of the Game

I don't really like ties, (see yesterday's post), but today Franquelis Osoria and Carlos Rosa will share the pitcher of the game award since they had the exact same outing, numbers-wise.  They each pitched a perfect inning with one strikeout.  The further we get into spring, the more I think Rosa might develop into our surprise in the bullpen this season, if he even gets a chance to make the team because of the numbers crunch.

Bruce Chen and His Impact

You may or may not remember back to 2005 when Bruce Chen was posting the best year of his career for the Baltimore Orioles.  Bruce was 13-10 in 32 starts with a 3.83 ERA and a 1.267 WHIP.  Fast forward to 2008 and Bruce was missing the entire season recovering from Tommy John surgery.  Bruce is just 31 and while he may not see an inning in the big leagues this year, his just being present as an option shows the drastic improvement the Royals have made since 2005.

The Bruce Chen signing is more important than Bruce Chen himself

In 2005, the Royals as a team posted a 5.56 ERA, including a rotation of Jose Lima and his 6.99 ERA, JP Howell and his 6.19 ERA, Zack Greinke and his 5.80 ERA (and 5-17 record, ouch), Runelvys Hernandez and his 5.52 ERA, and pre-Japan DJ Carrasco and his 4.79 ERA.  In 2005, the Royals would have brought in a pitcher like Bruce Chen to be their ace.  Jose Lima was their opening day starter that year after all.  Bruce would have been seen as the big FA acquisition that would carry the Royals to a .500 record.  Even more than the Juan Cruz signing that says that DM is ready to compete in 2009, the Bruce Chen signing says that the Royals have finally arrived in the MLB.  Sure, they are not a lock to even be .500, let alone make the playoffs or win the Central.  And they sure as hell don't get much media attention (though ESPN has sure been blogging about them lately).  But the Royals are finally a legit major league team who brings in a high upside option like Bruce Chen to work his butt off to maybe make our AAA squad to provide depth in case of injury.  And Ahh it feels so good.

Johnny Giavotella, your 2012 AL MVP?

Due to both their size and position, no one has draws more comparisons by Royals fans to Dustin Pedroia than Johnny Giavotella.  Sure they are both 5'8" (ish) and they are both scrappy, hard-nosed "ball players" and they were even drafted in the same round (2nd), but how similar are they actually?

College

Dustin Pedroia played mostly shortstop for the Arizona State Sun devils, starting every game during his college career.  Like Johnny, Dustin played 3 seasons of college, let's look at those seasons now:

Freshman year:

.347/.417/.432  - 13 doubles - 1 home run - 19 Ks 24 BBs

Sophomore year:

.404/.472/.579 - 34 doubles - 4 home runs - 13 Ks 36 BBs

Junior year:

.393/.502/.611 - 24 doubles -9 home runs - 15 Ks 48 BBs

Looking solely at these numbers, you can see the progression that led to Dustin's 2nd round selection by the Red Sox.  Pedroia improved his numbers every year.  His freshman year his best attribute was his average, and his ability to not be struck out.  As his experience progressed he hit for an even higher average with fewer strikeouts, but he also added power to his repertoire, and with that addition, he also began drawing more walks.  By his senior season, Dustin was a hitting machine, drawing over 3 times more walks than strikeouts and converting many of his doubles into home runs.  Looking at these numbers it is easy to see why Dustin has become such an excellent hitter, he's like a present day Ty Cobb.  (exaggeration)

Johnny Giavotella was a 3 year 2nd baseman at the University of New Orleans.  Taking a look at his numbers we see:

Freshman year: .348/.436/.529 - 11 doubles - 5 home runs - 28 Ks 36 BBs

Sophomore year: .385/.497/.676 - 19 doubles - 15 home runs - 25 Ks 54 BBs

Junior year: .354/.470/.591 - 16 doubles - 12 home runs - 25 Ks 53 BBs

At first glance, their numbers look fairly similar, they obviously both are high contact hitters who were very good in college.  But upon inspection, it becomes obvious that Johnny G was the more advanced hitter in college.  While Pedroia hit for a higher average in every year except his freshman year, and Johnny struck out more, Johnny also hit for much more power and drew far more walks.  Drawing walks and hitting for power are two of the most valuable things a hitter can do. While having a high average is also a good attribute, recent players like Adam Dunn and Pat Burrell have shown that you can hit for a low average and still be a top hitter in the league as long as you supplement that low average with hitting for power and drawing walks.  But Johnny Giavotella doesn't hit for a low average, he hits for almost as high of an average as Pedroia.  So, looking strictly at college numbers, Johnny Giavotella looks like the more promising young player, at least in my opinion.

Pros

But college isn't everything, and while Dustin Pedroia has completed his time in the minors and has a few years in the majors under his belt, all we have for Johnny G is 278 minor league at bats.  We'll take a look at them anyway.

2008:  .299/.355/.421 - 18 doubles - 4 home runs - 34 Ks 25 BBs in 278 at bats in A ball

The League Factor

Your first reaction might be "where did the power go?"  Which is a valid criticism, the thing to keep in mind, however, is these numbers came from the Midwest league, a notoriously pitcher friendly environment.  The league leader in home runs for the 2008 season was none other than fellow Burlington Bee, Mike Moustakas, with 22.  Moustakas was one of the best hitters in the Midwest league last year and he finished with a line that looked like this:

2008: .272/.337/.468 - 25 doubles - 22 home runs - 86 Ks 43 BBs

Oh, and Moustakas had 218 more at bats to produce these numbers than Johnny.  And he hadn't just finished his junior year of college where Johnny logged 237 at bats, and gone through the draft, and gone through being signed, etc.  When taken in context, Johnny's power numbers were actually pretty good, very good, even, when taken into consideration the fact that he is an undersized second baseman.

But how does that stack up against Pedroia?

Dustin Pedroia's first pro season was split between the South Atlantic and the Florida State league.  Both of which produced league leaders with 32 home runs in his first year, 10 more than the 22 that Moustakas slugged.  Keeping that in mind, Pedroia's first season broke down like this:

2004: .400/.474/.560 - 5 doubles - 1 home run - 3 Ks 6 BBs - 50 at bats in A ball

    .336/.417/.523 - 8 doubles - 2 home runs - 4Ks 13 BBs - 107 at bats in High A ball

Pedroia obviously performed well in his first season, drawing a BB for nearly every 8 at bats and only striking out 7 times.  While he showed that he was still a high average high OBP player, he also still hit for good power.  Pedroia's numbers did noticeably drop when moving up a level, and both leagues had similar offensive effects.  Pedroia would go on to shoot up through the minor leagues, reaching the majors as early as 2006 when he had 89 at bats.  Putting Johnny on a similar time scale would have him reaching the majors in 2010, right along with Moustakas (hopefully) and Hosmer (maybe).

The Result

Once you factor in the league factors, Dustin Pedroia and Johnny Giavotella both had remarkably similar debuts, with the slight edge going to Johnny G, in my opinion.  Johnny earns that edge because of his ability to still hit for decent power in a league where hitting for power is a very difficult thing to do.

Johnny Giavotella might regress into nothing and never make it above AA, but in an organization where middle infield prospects come to die (see Bianchi, Jeffrey) Johnny G has me more excited than any other Royals position player prospect except for Jose Duarte.

Thanks again for reading.