Patience is Key..

Well, the Royals won again today, and now sit at 7-4 and atop the AL Wildcard leaderboard.  Obviously, we're 11 games into the year and it's WAY too early to make any assumptions about the 2011 season.. However, the Royals have avoided their characteristic slow start this season and now come home for an 8 game home stand which sees them facing the Mariners and the Indians (losers of 2 in a row).  Theoretically, the Royals could win 6 games and see themselves sitting at the top of the division almost a month into the season.  This would be great news.  It would be a testament to the young(ish) players the Royals brought in or called up for this season.. Ka'aihue, Francouer, Cabrera, etc. have all been contributors to this point.  Even players like Chris Getz and Matt Treanor have made impacts.  This has all been great and really fun to watch, but do not let it trick you into thinking it would be okay to rush our prospects.

It has been clear that many baseball teams have underperformed to this point this season.  The Royals may very well take advantage of all this bad baseball and actually finish .500 this year, I'm not predicting it, but I'm certainly willing to offer up the possibility that it could happen.  What I am most afraid of for this season is not losing 100 games, it is rushing players like Eric Hosmer and Mike Montgomery to the big leagues.  Mike Moustakas and Lorenzo Cain are basically locks to see the bigs sometime before the All Star Break this season, because they have both spent time previous to this season in AAA.  Eric Hosmer, however is 21 years old and has only played in ~50 games in AA.  He needs to spend the whole season (or at least until September) in AAA.  You can not leave a player in the minors too long (and even if you could, one season certainly would not be the cutoff point).  However, you CERTAINLY can rush a player to the bigs too soon.. (see ANY of the Royals top prospects over the last decade).  By bringing Hosmer to the majors this year you gain NOTHING.  It would involve sitting/trading one of Billy Butler or Kila Ka'aihue and there is no reason to do that until next offseason.  Give both of those players a year to hit and show what they can do before you decide which you would like to keep and which you would like to trade away.

The same mantra goes for Mike Montgomery and all of our young starting pitching.  Give them each a season in AAA to hone their craft, certainly they will only get better over time.  Our rotation is not good at this point, but we aren't planning on winning the world series this season yet either.  I can think of a situation MAYBE where a pitcher gets hurt and goes down in mid/late July in which I might be okay with bringing up a young hurler, but we can cross that bridge when we get to it.  At this point I'd like anyone under the age of 23 to stay in the minors this season, please.

As an aside, scouts and statisticians can agree that players peak when they are 27-32 (or so).  Don't you want to hang on to our young players for all or at least most of this time period?  You're not hurting yourself by being patient, but you could easily ruin this whole "The Process" by bringing players up before their time.

Thanks for reading.

Does our offense really suck more than Sidney Ponson.. Really??

Well, I guess as long as the outcome was the same I can't be too disappointed, as I did expect the Royals to lose today.  But I'm pretty sure the fact Ponson actually surprised me and kept them in the game was even more frustrating.  Add in the fact that the Yankees only deserved probably 1 or 2 of their 4 runs and it's very very frustrating.  

First off, I thought Alberto Callaspo was the "experienced" second baseman?  Haven't we heard Trey talk a ton about how Bloomquist has the range, Teahen has the bat and Callaspo has the "experience"..  Dude looked like he was confused as all get out today.  Not making the right out, not tagging the runner and just running through the base assuming a force out.. all kinds of madness.

Anyway, Callaspo hate aside, the strikeouts and lack of discipline are killing me.  Pettite easily could have pitched another inning today if he wanted, he was just that efficient.  Sure, the strike zone was big, and I have beef with that, but the Yankees drew more walks and frankly, that pisses me off.  If there's one thing your offense should do it is to strive to draw more walks and get more hits than the other offense.  At a few points I felt like the offense was just swinging at anything that was a strike, instead of working the count and looking for a pitch to drive.  Pathetic.

I'm pretty sure Butler had the only hard hit ball period, and thanks to FSN we didn't even get to see the pitch.  Awesome, very reminiscent of the RSTN days.  The point is, the offense was awful for the 4th day in a row.  1 or 2 runs a game is not going to cut it in the ML, no matter how good MGD (Meche, Greinke, Davies) are going to be this season.  We have got to cut down on the strikeouts and we have to make the other pitcher work.

In other news, Jose Guillen went on the DL today.  Awesome.  It is definitely better than last season when he tried to play through a similar injury, but it always hurts losing your cleanup hitter.  No matter how much I rag on him, I recognize he means a lot to this team.  I am slightly confused though as to why Brayan and Tony Pena are still both on this roster.  Neither of them really does a lot for the bench.  Sure TPJ plays defense, but that's all he does, and Trey has yet to use him in 4 close games yet this year.  Brayan is the real head scratcher though.  I just don't understand the obsession.  He is a backup catcher who can play some in the field.  How'd that work out for JR House?  I understand the intrigue that he can bat from both sides of the plate.. but if he's a crappy hitter (okay, he isn't THAT bad) then it doesn't matter where he likes to swing the bat from, he isn't helping the offense very much.

Point is, I feel like Kila, Shealy, Maier, Costa, etc. would all be much more beneficial to this team than baseball.  Baseball has the most games of any sport that I know of, and players on the bench are going to get starts.  Who would you rather see grab 200 ABs for the Royals this year, Brayan and Tony Pena or Shane Costa and Ryan Shealy?  I thought so..

Jamey Wright will be the pitcher of the game, as he went 2 scoreless striking out 3 and giving up just a hit.  

Billy Butler hit a double, drew the only walk and scored the only run, earning him HoG honors today.

Let's hope the boys turn it around tomorrow against CC.. ugh.. haha.. just kidding, we all know Horacio Ramirez is going to start for the Royals..  Gil Meche will try to prevent the sweep on Sunday.  First pitch tomorrow is at 6:10.. 

Lowery and Ka'aihue reassigned as Lubanski goes yard..

The big news of the day (for me, anyway) is that Devin Lowery and Kila Ka'aihue were both optioned down to AAA.  This leaves the Royals with 48 players left in major league camp, players like JR House, Tommy Murphy, Heath Phillips and Corey Smith, all who are virtual locks to get cut eventually.  Before everyone gets out of hand over the young players getting cut before the players who are locks to get cut later you must understand the reasoning for the moves.  That is; to get those players more at bats.  

Ka'aihue had 17 at bats this spring, good for 21st on the squad.  In those at bats he posted a line of .235/.409/.235.  Devin Lowery on the other hand had pitched in 4.2 innings, good for 17th most this spring.  Devin had given up just 1 hit and no runs so far this spring.  Both of these players figure to spend at least some time in Kansas City this summer, regardless of injuries to the ML squad.

Well the 2nd and final TV game for the spring has come and gone, this one being much better than the first, in my opinion.  The Royals beat the Dodgers 9-4, as Brandon Duckworth managed to get the win.  10 Royals hitters had 1 hit each none better than Chris Lubanski's 2 run shot in the 6th innings.  The Royals managed 6 runs in the 5th innings when the Dodgers booted the ball around defensively.

Hochevar was solid, after a shaky start and poor command I was concerned.  However, he managed to fight through it and produced 4 solid innings, striking out just one but allowing just 3 runs.  

Hitter of the game

The hitter of the game has to be Chris Lubanski, who drove in himself and Coco Crisp in the 6th inning with a good shot to straight away center.  Chris is hitting .304/.322/.504 in 23 at bats this spring, including 3 home runs.

Pitcher of the game

Overall the pitching today was quite solid, but I like Joakim Soria for the pitcher of the game.  It was good to see Joakim in a Royals uni today, as he's fresh back from the WBC.  Joakim pitched the 7th inning, allowing just one single and striking out 2 batters.  Vintage Joakim, one might say.  Joakim has yet to allow a run this spring.

Tomorrow

The Royals once again travel to Tucson to take on the D-backs tomorrow.  First pitch is scheduled for 3:05 Central time.  Gil Meche gets the nod for the Royals against AZ ace Brandon Webb.  Jamey Wright, Roman Colon, and Yasuhiko Yabuta are also scheduled to pitch tomorrow.

Thanks for reading, once again.

Why I still belive in Chris Lubanski, even though YOU don't

Both the Royals and Kevin Seitzer needed a day like today.  The offense provided a validation of all of their efforts, and while it was just Spring Training, I honest feel like this is definitely a sign of progress being made in the right direction.

The Offense

The Royals hitters tallied up 18 hits and 14 runs in just 8 innings.  4 batters had at least 2 hits, and 9 different batters drew at least one walk.  The hitters did only have 2 extra base hits (a double by Suomi and a triple by Lubanski).  However, they drew a total of 10 walks against just 6 strikeouts, which was a big improvement over yesterday's numbers.  I realize this is Spring Training, but at the same time, we look for these results in ST, not for struggles like yesterday.

The Pitchers

Royals pitchers gave up just 2 earned runs today, but 5 runs in total.  I don't like the idea of "unearned" and "earned" runs, maybe I'll get into why in another post.  Lowery, Davies, and Wright all had scoreless outings.  Altogether, the pitchers tallied just 4 strikeouts (1 each from Ramirez, Davies, Wright, Pimental), but only 1 walk (Ramirez).

Hitter of the Game

The hitter of the game award has to go to Chris Lubanski, who had an awesome game.  Chris went 3-3 with 2 runs and 2 rbi, including a triple.  Chris is widely regarded as one of the hardest working prospects in our system, and although a lot of people have already written him off, I really hope he can have a bounce-back year, he's still just 23 and will turn 24 later this month.

Pitcher of the Game

No question here, Kyle Davies earns the pitcher of the game award.  Kyle pitched 3 scoreless innings giving up just 1 single while striking out 1 and walking none.  Kyle managed to get through three innings on just 40 pitches, which is a pretty good number.  Kyle said his best pitch going today was his changeup and he relied on it heavily.

Tomorrow's Game

The Royals will host the Cleveland Indians tomorrow at 2:05 p.m. central.  Anthony Reyes will start for the Tribe.  Zack Greinke gets the nod for the boys in blue.  Zack will be followed by Kyle Farnsworth, Jimmy Gobble, Ron Mahay, Doug Waechter, and Robinson Tejeda.

Lubes

Christopher Sebastian Lubanski was selected with the 5th overall pick of the 2003 rule IV draft.  At the time most people viewed it as a way to save money, because most teams did not have Chris rated so high and so he would sign for money below that of MLB's recommended amount for that "slot."  

When Chris was drafted out of High School in 2003, he was viewed as a speedy, defensive minded center fielder who would grow into his body and hopefully turn into a 5 tool player.  As the years have progressed, Chris has morphed expectations from a top of the order player who would get on base and steal to a middle of the order hitter who could be patient and hit for power to many people hoping he can become a 4th outfielder.  As I stated earlier, many people have already written him off as a bust, lumping him together with guys like Mike Stodolka and Colt Griffin, who were clear failures of the Allard Baird era.  

If you fall into this category, I ask that you please rethink your assessment.

My Argument,  and an overview of Chris's career

Lubes had a pretty good start to his pro career, using 221 at bats in rookie ball in 2003 to post a .326/.382/.452 line.  The Royals wanted Chris to turn into a base stealer, and sent him on 19 attempts in 53 games.  He was only successful in 10 of those attempts, however.  As the years rolled on, it would become clear that while Chris was speedy (very speedy, even, at first) he was not much of a base stealer.  (DeJesus, anyone?)  

2004

2004 found Chris in the Midwest League, playing CF for the Burlington Bees.  As I've been over before, the Midwest league is a pitcher's haven.  Chris, just 19 at the time, still put up a .275/.336/.414 line with 43 walks against 104 strikeouts and 7 home runs in 483 at bats.  Very good numbers once you consider all of the variables.  At this time Chris was still rated the #2 best prospect in the Royals system, and even the 63rd best prospect in baseball.

2005  AKA the year expectations were born

In 2005, Chris was promoted to high A ball and spent the entire season there, racking up 531 at bats for the High Desert Mavericks of the California League.  Unlike the Midwest league, the California League is a much better environment for hitters.  Chris went on to lead the Cali. league in RBI that season with 116 in just 126 games.  Coincidentally the leader in OBP for the Cali. league that year was another written-off prospect, Kila Ka'aihue.  The leader in hits was another written-off prospect, Angel Sanchez.  Brandon Wood slugged .672 that year, with 43 home runs, so it clearly was a hitters' paradise.  Chris hit .301/.349/.554 with 28 home runs and 38 walks and 131 strikeouts.  Chris also stole 14 bases against just one caught stealing.  This was Chris's breakout year which led to all the hype.  What a lot of people didn't understand was the league's effect on his numbers, which led to an over-hyping and thus a disappointment when he got back to a pretty even league as far as offense goes in AA.  Another example of this same situation is Brandon Wood.

2006

In 2006 Chris spent the whole year in AA for the Wichita Wranglers, playing along Billy Butler, Alex Gordon, Angel Sanchez, Shane Costa, Kila Ka'aihue, and Zack Greinke.  Lubes spent a lot of 2006 adjusting to the more advanced pitchers after struggling in the first half of the season.  Chris managed to put together a solid second half, however, ending with a line of .282/.369/.475 with 15 home runs (and 11 triples) along with 112 strikeouts while drawing 72 walks.

Intermission

Let's take a break here and look at Chris's career path after the 2006 season.  He was seen as a reach with the 5th overall pick in the 2003 amateur players draft.  He then went on to disappoint the Royals in his debut, despite his fine hitting numbers, by not being the base stealer they thought he was.  Between 2004 and 2006, Chris's value as a prospect peaked, especially when he hit 28 home runs and led the Cali. League in with 116 RBI in 2005.  People so often forger that where the numbers are produced are just as important as what numbers they are.  Chris had already begun his transformation from a speedy center fielder who could be the spark plug on a lineup to a bulky, home run hitting, strikeout prone corner outfielder with a decent eye, drawing 72 walks in 2006.

2007

At the start of 2007 Chris has just turned 22 and is sent to repeat AA again, despite his excellent second half numbers in 2006.  In the first half of the year of 2007 Chris hits .295/.361/.490, with 9 home runs, 43 strikeouts and 28 walks in 64 games.  These numbers proved enough for Chris to earn a midseason promotion to AAA, where he struggled mightily at first.  In 49 games Chris hit just .208/.273/.363 with 6 home runs, 48 strikeouts and 16 walks.

Chris suddenly fell off the map after this disastrous (in most fans eyes) season.  The key thing to remember, however, is that Chris was very young for the league.  And while it became obvious that Chris wasn't going to be a prodigy like Ken Griffey Jr. or Alex Rodriguez and reach the majors before he could drink, the opposite didn't have to be the only other option.  The opposite meaning that he was just a AAAA player who despite his earlier promise could never hack it in the majors.

The best part about Chris Lubanski, and one reason he is a favorite prospect of mine (besides the fact that he is so hardworking and humble) is that he has excellent skills which are under appreciated, in my opinion.  For instance, he hits for a fairly low average and strikes out a lot, but he also hits for a good amount of power (including a healthy dose of doubles, triples, and home runs) and he also takes a good amount of walks.  To see what I mean, let's look at last season, 2008.

2008

In 2008, Chris repeated AAA.  In 116 games, Chris hit .242/.306/.448, with 15 home runs, 130 strikeouts, and 38 walks.  While these numbers are far from "great" they do show more promise than I think a lot of people realize.  For one thing, Chris got off to a bad start again.  But he fought through his early struggles and managed to post a decent average, all things considered.  While Chris did take fewer walks than will be necessary for him to continue with such a low average, he did have success in one statistical category I enjoy looking at; ISO, or isolated slugging/power.  Chris had a 206 ISO last season, which is great, considering the Royals best power hitter last season (Guillen) had a 174 ISO.  ISO is a good indicator of raw power, as it essentially takes all of the singles out of your batting average and takes a look at just the XBH you have.  While it is not perfect, it is a good indicator of future results.

So where does this leave us?

Well, at this point, it's obvious that Chris probably won't ever develop into the prodigy that many people expect out of top 5 picks.  However, that does not mean we should cut our losses, as I feel like Chris still has tremendous potential.  Chris will see AAA for the third time this year, and I still don't even believe it's quite a make or break season for him, but many people do.  Even with his last at bat this season he'll still just be 24, a full year younger than Kila Ka'aihue and a year and a half younger than Luke Hochevar.  The biggest hurdle for Chris to overcome is that is that his skill set (high power, high walks, high strikeouts, mediocre defense) does not quite fit in with the gameplan of Dayton Moore.  That being said, Dayton does like his home-grown players, so he may learn to love Chris despite his "flaws".  Regardless, Chris will see another year of AAA, and will hopefully see some time in the majors, as well.  If Chris can increase his walks and hits each by 20 this season, (a reasonable goal, in my opinion) he would once again cement himself as a player that we can look forward to in the near future. 

I think Chris's likely career path is as a player who can come in and be a poor man's Adam Dunn for a few years in the majors.  Players with Chris Lubanski's skill set don't typically have long careers, but assuming he is able to have a good AAA season, Chris could find himself as a good corner outfielder on a big league team next season, hitting 20 or so home runs with a .350 obp or so.  Chris still has a lot of development, but I feel like as long as he keeps working at it, he has the potential to be successful.

And if he does work at it and become successful, then I believe that he doesn't have to be just a short term player.  If Chris can get his average back up to .300 where it was before AAA (remember, Chris has hit very well at every level except for AAA) then I think that Chris can become something of a Carlos Quentin.  Chris might not ever be as good as Quentin was this past season, but he can come in as a player in his mid 20's and help lead a team.  Chris Lubanski has the ability, in my opinion to be a middle of the order hitter on a good team.  It's up to Chris to have another "breakout" season in AAA and prove everyone wrong who has given up on him so quickly.  

Chris might not ever even get one at bat in the majors, and he may perform so poorly in AAA this year that he falls out of baseball completely after 2009.  But I don't believe that to be the case.  I still believe in Chris Lubanski, do you?

As always, thanks for reading.

Johnny Giavotella, your 2012 AL MVP?

The Game

The Royals faced off against the Angels today in their fifth Spring Training game.  They got down early due to Gil Meche's disappointing first inning, and tied it up in the top of the 5th just to relinquish the lead once again in the bottom of the 5th to complete a topsy-turvy game.  Today was also the day the Royals lost all of their WBC players: Jose Guillen and Miguel Olivo to the Dominican Republic, Mark Teahen to Canada, Lenny DiNardo to Italy, Joakim Soria to Mexico, Dylan Lindsay to South Africa, Mike Aviles to Puerto Rico, and the Royals newest addition, Bruce Chen, to Panama.  Which urges the question, can you lose a player to the WBC if you never had him before the report date anyway?  

Meche

There's been a lot of post-game reporting that Gil Meche's back isn't/doesn't hurt.  Gil better do whatever he can to make sure that this truly is the case, because our season will rely heavily on him.  And so much chatter about a non-injury scares me.  Gil pitched one inning today, as scheduled, giving up 3 earned runs on 4 hits and a walk.  The lone bright spot was his two strikeouts.  

The Relievers

Duckworth, Hamulack and Peralta each gave up a run in their relief appearances as well, further reducing their chances of making the big league squad.  Barrera, Osoria, and Rosa had one scoreless inning each, giving up 0 hits and striking out one, with only Barrera walking one.  Both Barrera and Rosa have yet to give up runs this spring.  Altogether the pitchers issued 6 walks against 7 strikeouts.  Easily the worst numbers yet this spring.

The Offense

Crisp had as many hits as yesterday, zero, but drew three fewer walks.  Hopefully Coco can keep from having too many games like today, because his value is essentially measured in his OBP and his defense.  (Unless he gets back to hitting 15+ home runs).  Royals hitters altogether drew just two walks against 7 strikeouts, and were held to their first home run-less game this spring.

Hitter of the Game

David DeJesus shone brightly in the three hole, going 2-2 with a walk.  David knocked in 1 RBI and came around to score once himself.  Other Notables were Ka'aihue who went 1-1 and John Buck who was 1-2 with a walk and a leadoff double.  (If you haven't noticed yet, anytime John Buck leads off he is a doubles machine.  Next time he is leading off pay close attention because there is something like a 65% chance he will hit a double).

Pitcher of the Game

I don't really like ties, (see yesterday's post), but today Franquelis Osoria and Carlos Rosa will share the pitcher of the game award since they had the exact same outing, numbers-wise.  They each pitched a perfect inning with one strikeout.  The further we get into spring, the more I think Rosa might develop into our surprise in the bullpen this season, if he even gets a chance to make the team because of the numbers crunch.

Bruce Chen and His Impact

You may or may not remember back to 2005 when Bruce Chen was posting the best year of his career for the Baltimore Orioles.  Bruce was 13-10 in 32 starts with a 3.83 ERA and a 1.267 WHIP.  Fast forward to 2008 and Bruce was missing the entire season recovering from Tommy John surgery.  Bruce is just 31 and while he may not see an inning in the big leagues this year, his just being present as an option shows the drastic improvement the Royals have made since 2005.

The Bruce Chen signing is more important than Bruce Chen himself

In 2005, the Royals as a team posted a 5.56 ERA, including a rotation of Jose Lima and his 6.99 ERA, JP Howell and his 6.19 ERA, Zack Greinke and his 5.80 ERA (and 5-17 record, ouch), Runelvys Hernandez and his 5.52 ERA, and pre-Japan DJ Carrasco and his 4.79 ERA.  In 2005, the Royals would have brought in a pitcher like Bruce Chen to be their ace.  Jose Lima was their opening day starter that year after all.  Bruce would have been seen as the big FA acquisition that would carry the Royals to a .500 record.  Even more than the Juan Cruz signing that says that DM is ready to compete in 2009, the Bruce Chen signing says that the Royals have finally arrived in the MLB.  Sure, they are not a lock to even be .500, let alone make the playoffs or win the Central.  And they sure as hell don't get much media attention (though ESPN has sure been blogging about them lately).  But the Royals are finally a legit major league team who brings in a high upside option like Bruce Chen to work his butt off to maybe make our AAA squad to provide depth in case of injury.  And Ahh it feels so good.

Johnny Giavotella, your 2012 AL MVP?

Due to both their size and position, no one has draws more comparisons by Royals fans to Dustin Pedroia than Johnny Giavotella.  Sure they are both 5'8" (ish) and they are both scrappy, hard-nosed "ball players" and they were even drafted in the same round (2nd), but how similar are they actually?

College

Dustin Pedroia played mostly shortstop for the Arizona State Sun devils, starting every game during his college career.  Like Johnny, Dustin played 3 seasons of college, let's look at those seasons now:

Freshman year:

.347/.417/.432  - 13 doubles - 1 home run - 19 Ks 24 BBs

Sophomore year:

.404/.472/.579 - 34 doubles - 4 home runs - 13 Ks 36 BBs

Junior year:

.393/.502/.611 - 24 doubles -9 home runs - 15 Ks 48 BBs

Looking solely at these numbers, you can see the progression that led to Dustin's 2nd round selection by the Red Sox.  Pedroia improved his numbers every year.  His freshman year his best attribute was his average, and his ability to not be struck out.  As his experience progressed he hit for an even higher average with fewer strikeouts, but he also added power to his repertoire, and with that addition, he also began drawing more walks.  By his senior season, Dustin was a hitting machine, drawing over 3 times more walks than strikeouts and converting many of his doubles into home runs.  Looking at these numbers it is easy to see why Dustin has become such an excellent hitter, he's like a present day Ty Cobb.  (exaggeration)

Johnny Giavotella was a 3 year 2nd baseman at the University of New Orleans.  Taking a look at his numbers we see:

Freshman year: .348/.436/.529 - 11 doubles - 5 home runs - 28 Ks 36 BBs

Sophomore year: .385/.497/.676 - 19 doubles - 15 home runs - 25 Ks 54 BBs

Junior year: .354/.470/.591 - 16 doubles - 12 home runs - 25 Ks 53 BBs

At first glance, their numbers look fairly similar, they obviously both are high contact hitters who were very good in college.  But upon inspection, it becomes obvious that Johnny G was the more advanced hitter in college.  While Pedroia hit for a higher average in every year except his freshman year, and Johnny struck out more, Johnny also hit for much more power and drew far more walks.  Drawing walks and hitting for power are two of the most valuable things a hitter can do. While having a high average is also a good attribute, recent players like Adam Dunn and Pat Burrell have shown that you can hit for a low average and still be a top hitter in the league as long as you supplement that low average with hitting for power and drawing walks.  But Johnny Giavotella doesn't hit for a low average, he hits for almost as high of an average as Pedroia.  So, looking strictly at college numbers, Johnny Giavotella looks like the more promising young player, at least in my opinion.

Pros

But college isn't everything, and while Dustin Pedroia has completed his time in the minors and has a few years in the majors under his belt, all we have for Johnny G is 278 minor league at bats.  We'll take a look at them anyway.

2008:  .299/.355/.421 - 18 doubles - 4 home runs - 34 Ks 25 BBs in 278 at bats in A ball

The League Factor

Your first reaction might be "where did the power go?"  Which is a valid criticism, the thing to keep in mind, however, is these numbers came from the Midwest league, a notoriously pitcher friendly environment.  The league leader in home runs for the 2008 season was none other than fellow Burlington Bee, Mike Moustakas, with 22.  Moustakas was one of the best hitters in the Midwest league last year and he finished with a line that looked like this:

2008: .272/.337/.468 - 25 doubles - 22 home runs - 86 Ks 43 BBs

Oh, and Moustakas had 218 more at bats to produce these numbers than Johnny.  And he hadn't just finished his junior year of college where Johnny logged 237 at bats, and gone through the draft, and gone through being signed, etc.  When taken in context, Johnny's power numbers were actually pretty good, very good, even, when taken into consideration the fact that he is an undersized second baseman.

But how does that stack up against Pedroia?

Dustin Pedroia's first pro season was split between the South Atlantic and the Florida State league.  Both of which produced league leaders with 32 home runs in his first year, 10 more than the 22 that Moustakas slugged.  Keeping that in mind, Pedroia's first season broke down like this:

2004: .400/.474/.560 - 5 doubles - 1 home run - 3 Ks 6 BBs - 50 at bats in A ball

    .336/.417/.523 - 8 doubles - 2 home runs - 4Ks 13 BBs - 107 at bats in High A ball

Pedroia obviously performed well in his first season, drawing a BB for nearly every 8 at bats and only striking out 7 times.  While he showed that he was still a high average high OBP player, he also still hit for good power.  Pedroia's numbers did noticeably drop when moving up a level, and both leagues had similar offensive effects.  Pedroia would go on to shoot up through the minor leagues, reaching the majors as early as 2006 when he had 89 at bats.  Putting Johnny on a similar time scale would have him reaching the majors in 2010, right along with Moustakas (hopefully) and Hosmer (maybe).

The Result

Once you factor in the league factors, Dustin Pedroia and Johnny Giavotella both had remarkably similar debuts, with the slight edge going to Johnny G, in my opinion.  Johnny earns that edge because of his ability to still hit for decent power in a league where hitting for power is a very difficult thing to do.

Johnny Giavotella might regress into nothing and never make it above AA, but in an organization where middle infield prospects come to die (see Bianchi, Jeffrey) Johnny G has me more excited than any other Royals position player prospect except for Jose Duarte.

Thanks again for reading.