RBI Efficiency: Understanding Opportunity

This post has long been in the works. Not necessarily in the physical sense, but in the mental sense. Ever since reading my first Baseball Prospectus article more than 5 years ago I have longed to have a better understanding of the REAL numbers behind baseball. It's frustrating living in a world full of outdated stats which don't always tell the whole story. None are more frustrating than RBI. I have come up with a way to better compare RBI numbers. I'm going to share this stat with you.

It seems as if almost every year when the discussion for MVP comes up, each candidate's RBI numbers are compared and a winner is determined by whoever has the most. This seems unfair to me. Not every player has the same opportunities to drive in runs. Why penalize a player for having ~5 less RBI when he had the opportunity to drive in 1000 runs, whereas the player who had ~5 more RBI had the opportunity to drive in 1150 runs? These players are clearly not being compared on an even plane. Think about it like this: When deciding a Cy Young Award winner, would you take into account the fact that one pitcher started 3 fewer games? I would. Now, this is slightly different because in a pitching comparison you may take into account the fact that the better pitcher was able to start more games, either by not being injured or not being in the minors, etc. However, when comparing RBI opportunities, both players may have an equal number of games played and even plate appearances, however, one of the players had an opportunity for more RBI simply by his position in the batting order and the success of his teammates.

In order to alleviate the problem that different RBI opportunities create, I propose a new stat. I'm going to call it RBI Efficiency, at least for now. It is a stat that can show how successful a player is at driving in runs compared to the opportunities that he has to drive in runs. This number can be shown as a decimal, but I prefer to show it as a percentage. This percentage literally says that player X will drive in a run XX% of the time he has the opportunity to drive in a run.

The calculation of this stat is actually fairly simple, but I don't believe anyone has come up with it yet due to a lack of statistical information being readily available until recently. www.Baseball-Reference.com has a link to batting split-stats for every major league player, broken down by year. This information is vital to calculate RBI-e. By looking at how many plate appearances each player had in different RBI situations, and then weighing how successful they were versus how successful they could have been, you can come up with their RBI-e.

Later in this post I will break down the 2010 Royals RBI-e, as well as a few other players in the AL for the 2010 season, but for now I will break down how this stat is calculated.

Every time a player comes to bat, he has an opportunity to drive in at least 1 run. This is true no matter the game situation, no matter the outs, and no matter the inning. If the bases are empty, the player has the "opportunity" to drive in 1 run. That is to say, in a perfect (offensive) world, each player would come to bat and hit a solo home run. The goal of baseball is to score runs, and this is the simplest, most efficient way of doing so. Since that player has the "opportunity" to score 1 run, all of his RBI with the bases empty are measured against the number of plate appearances he had. For instance, in 2006, Mark Teahen had 234 plate appearances with the bases empty. He had 8 RBI in such situations, therefore, when calculating his RBI-e you start with his efficiency being 8/234. In reality, a very small percentage or runs are scored this way, and so a player's true efficiency will not very well be reflected by his efficiency with the bases empty.

As we continue to determine a player's RBI-e, I find it helpful to create a small chart that looks something like this:

PA RBI e

empty 234 8 8/234

1 on xxx xx xx/xxx

2 on xxx xx xx/xxx

full xx xx xx/xx

total: xxx/xxxx e: xx.xx%

Continuing with our calculation of Mark Teahen's RBI-e in 2006, he had 146 plate appearances with 1 man on. In those situations, (either with a man on 1st, 2nd, or 3rd) he had the opportunity to drive in 292 runs (again, think of ultimate success as a home run, in this case, a 2 run shot). He drove in 35 RBI. His efficiency with 1 man on was 35/292, giving him a running total of 43/526.

Mark had 51 plate appearances with 2 men on. He could have hit 51 3 run home runs, meaning he had the "opportunity" to drive in 153 RBI. He drove in 22 Runs. This brings his running total to 65/679. Mark had 8 plate appearances with the bases loaded. He had the opportunity for 8 grand slams, for a total of 32 RBI. He drove in 4 runs for an "e" of 4/32.

Mark Teahen's RBI-e in 2006 was 69/711, 0.970, or 9.70%. This is to say Mark Teahen drove in 9.70% of the runs that he had the opportunity to drive in. If we take a look back at our chart from earlier, and finish filling it out, it looks like this:

PA RBI e

empty 234 8 8/234

1 on 146 35 35/292

2 on 51 22 22/153

full 8 4 4/32

total: 69/711 0.970 RBI-e=9.70%

No stat has meaning without understanding how different players compare, but before I break down other players, I'd like to discuss what this stat is meant to do, and its flaws. This stat is NOT meant to determine how well a player did compared to how well an average player might do. To better understand what I mean by this, consider the following. I lump together all of a player's plate appearances with one man on. This may seem counterintuitive at first, because a player is expected to drive in many more runs with a man on third and no outs than he is expected to drive in with a man on first and 2 outs. However, this stat is not meant to weigh individual expectancies, it is simply a tool to help measure different players' efficiency when it comes to driving in runs. You may argue that this puts certain players at a disadvantage, especially those that do not hit home runs very often. I would agree, however, as I discussed earlier, in a perfect world, a home run would be the result of every at bat, and so by putting players who do not hit home runs at a disadvantage, we are simply viewing them in a truer sense of their value when compared to other players.

That being said, let's look at a break down of the 2010 Royals. There were 11 players who drove in at least 30 RBI in 2010. Those players were:

78 Billy Butler

78 Yuniesky Betancourt

77 Jose Guillen

56 Alberto Callaspo

51 Scott Podsednik

43 Wilson Betemit

39 Mitch Maier

37 Jason Kendall

37 David DeJesus

32 Mike Aviles

When you look at RBI totals alone, Butler, Betancourt and Guillen were clearly the standouts. Let's take a look at their RBI-e now.

8.27% Wilson Betemit

8.02% Jose Guillen

7.88% Yuniesky Betancourt

6.98% Billy Butler

5.99% David DeJesus

5.75% Alberto Callaspo

5.71% Mitch Maier

5.65% Scott Podsednik

4.60% Mike Aviles

4.70% Jason Kendall

As you can see, the names at the bottom of the list probably don't surprise you, except maybe Aviles. However, Wilson Betemit being at the top came as a bit of a surprise to me. Betemit drove in 43 runs last season, but he only had the opportunity to drive in 520, which was less than half the amount that Billy Butler had the opportunity to drive in. Wilson Betemit did a better job of utilizing his RBI opportunities than Butler did, and, theoretically, if Betemit had as many opportunities as Butler, he would (should) have driven in more runs. Butler's efficiency is simply not as good as it could have been. In order to gain more perspective let's take a look at how Butler has been since reaching the majors in 2007.

Billy Butler RBI-e

2007 8.74%

2008 7.30%

2009 8.62%

2010 6.98%

As you can see, these numbers bounce around a little bit, he seems to have had some success his rookie year, regressed a bit in his sophomore year and then taken another step forward in 2009. However, last year he regressed a bit again, at least when looking at his ability to drive in runs. Let's take a look at another fairly young player with a similar number of plate appearances in his career.

Evan Longoria RBI-e

2008 9.80%

2009 10.03%

2010 9.23%

Clearly, Longoria does a better job of utilizing his opportunities to drive in runs. In fact, in 2010, Longoria had the opportunity to drive in 1127 runs. Butler had the opportunity to drive in 1117 runs. Butler drove in 78, while Longoria drove in 104. Now that we have a better understanding of efficiency, we can determine that while Butler drove in 26 fewer runs, he had 100 less "opportunities" to drive in a run. When you combine both of these numbers you can see that he was simply not as good as Longoria at driving in runs.

Just for fun, let's take a look at Miguel Cabrera's 2010 season (2010 AL RBI leader). Miguel had the "opportunity" to drive in 1127 runs, which is the exact same number that Evan Longoria could have driven in. However, Miggy drove in 126 runs, while Longoria drove in 104. Miggy's RBI-e Then was 11.18%. He was clearly better than Longoria.

I hope this stat will be useful for helping to determine not only players' seasons as they compare to other players, but also as they compare to their own careers. This stat is not meant to be an end-all, be-all kind of stat, and I doubt you'll find it on the back of a baseball card anytime soon. But it can be a useful tool when comparing different players, especially when looking at players who bat in different spots in the lineup and who play for teams with largely different levels of runs scored. Thanks for reading.

Stars aligned for Teahen to take off??

Well, after another short hiatus I'm back.  I guess I should warn everyone that throughout the season I may miss a few days due to my somewhat unpredictable schedule.  Rest assured, however, that I will always be back and should be able to catch up the PoG and HoG award winners for the games that I missed.  Speaking of the PoG and HoG, you should notice a new table on the main page with a list of all the HoGs and PoGs that I will update all year long.

Anyway, let's look what's gone on since I last posted!

The Royals fell 4-2 on Tuesday, with 3 of those runs coming from a shot by Jim Thome.  Personally, I was distraught when Meche wasn't run back out to pitch the 8th after he only had 91 pitches in the 7th (this was a pitcher who led the league in pitches last year), but I was even more distraught when Hillman left Farnsworth (the king of giving up HR.. or at the least the Prince to Joel Peralta's King) in to face one of the best HR hitters of all time.  Farnsworth throws hard and straight, Thome hits hard straight balls a long ways..  Bad combo.  I fully expected Hillman to put in Mahay or Soria or even Cruz in after Farnsworth K'd the righty Quentin.  It just didn't make much sense to me for Farns to stay in.  But by not posting yesterday I mostly missed out on this discussion so I'll let bygones be bygones.   Anyway, there were only two pitchers yesterday and one ended up with an ERA of 9, the other ended up with an ERA under 2.  For those reasons I'll anoint Gil Meche as the first PoG.  As for hitters, I'll name the only player to drive in a run (he drove in 2) to be the HoG.  Gil Meche and Alex Gordon, if those two players are the most important for a lot of games this year I expect we'll do pretty well.

As for today's game, I felt like it was a slightly worse game for the Royals than yesterday, even though they won.  The offense was slightly less patient and the pitching was slightly less good.  Don't get me wrong, it was a great game.  In fact, I think one of the most important plays of April happened this game.  In the 8th inning, Mark Teahen ranged far to his right and scooped a ball up on the run and threw out Dewayne Wise.  While Mark Grudz probably would have made this look routine even with his reduced range, I was pretty impressed.  I know it's early, but so far Mark Teahen has not been embarrassing at 2nd base.  Listening to his interview today on 810 with Soren Petro, he makes me want to believe that playing 2nd base is something he will work even harder at than learning the OF.  This is because it is something he enjoys.  Mark Teahen will probably never have the career he could have had if the Royals had drafted Ryan Braun and moved him to the OF while keeping Teahen at 3B.  But that doesn't have to be a bad thing.  Teahen is only 27 this season, and while he may not be that pull hitter everyone wants him to be, by playing 2B and having Kevin Seitzer as a pitching coach, I really feel like the stars are in line for Teahen to have another breakout year.  He may not do this by hitting for a ton of power, but look for a player who will hit for around .290 with a lot of doubles, a lot of walks, less strikeouts, and around 15 home runs.  Maybe a player similar to Jose Lopez with a few more walks?  That may be something to hope for.  Probably not as good defensively as Jose, however.

Anyway, the PoG of today's game has to be Zack Greinke.  Greinke looked like good ol' vintage Zack.  I had hoped he could get through 7 innings, but let's be honest, in today's world 6 innings of shutout ball and 3 hits is pretty good for a starting pitcher.  Add in the fact you're pitching AT the home of one of the better offenses in the league, and he had a downright great performance.  The hitter of the game will be Mike Aviles.  Mike had a nice bounceback day after going 0-4 in his '09 debut yesterday.  Mike was the only Royal to score a run, as he scored both of the runs today.  He also started the only double play of the game.

Another thing I just remembered that somewhat irks me is the sac bunt that Crisp had to lay down today.  I know Hillman used to manage in Japan, but c'mon!  There simply isn't a Tony Pena Jr. in the starting lineup (hopefull there won't be in ANY starting lineup this season!)  The Royals lineup is clearly aligned for offense, otherwise Gload will still be here and playing 1B, Bloomquist would be playing 2B Guillen would be the DH with Teahen in the OF.  But, that's not the case, the lineup is catered to offense, so let them hit!  What irked me even more was there was a wild pitch to move Aviles to 2B while Crisp was trying to bunt.  Did Trey decide to then let Crisp swing away with a 2-0 count?  NO.  He made Crisp bunt Aviles over to 3rd.  Ouch.  This is the leadoff hitter we're talking about.  A player capable of 35 doubles and 15 home runs, not to mention a .300 average.  And we're bunting over to 3rd with no outs..  Really?

This nonsense has to stop!

On the plus side, there haven't really been any baserunning gaffs yet, and no stolen bases, so that's a good sign.  (I think only Crisp and Teahen should be green-lighted on the basepaths.. everyone else is probably too much of a liability.  And I'm not saying Teahen is as good at stealing as Crisp, I just think he is as smart on the basepaths as any other player in the majors, so the trust should be there to allow him to know when to run and when not to run.)

Anyway, the game tomorrow starts at 1:05 p.m. with Kyle Davies taking on John Danks.  Should be another pitcher's duel.. (or so we hope!)

Thanks for reading!

p.s. I picked 77 in the poll question..

Royals ride Gil's Gem past Dodgers..

After 35 straight days of blog posting, I needed a few days off, so excuse my short sabbatical.  Anyway, I'm back and ready to hit my stride right as spring training finishes up and the boys in blue pack up and come back home to KC.  The Royals were in action today against the Dodgers, and won handily, 4-1, behind a strong start by Gil Meche.

In fact, all of the pitching was very good today, as the pitchers allowed just one run on 5 hits while striking out 9 and walking just three.  No extra base hits were allowed.

The offense was not bad, either, banging out 10 hits for 4 runs.  2 of the ten hits went for extra bases, both being doubles smacked by John Buck and Jose Guillen.  The offense continues their struggles as of late as far as drawing walks however, as they drew just 1 while striking out 8 times.

Hitter of the Game

Mike Aviles, back in the three hole, continued his torrid pace at the plate today.  Mike was 2-3 with one walk and one RBI.  Aviles is hitting .407/.469/.704 in 27 spring at bats.  

Pitcher of the Game

Gil Meche, no ifs ands or buts.  Gil had the kind of outing that will hopefully quiet critics who had been speaking quite loudly as of late.  Gil pitched 7 shutout innings, allowing just 4 singles.  Gil also struck out 6 batters while walking just one.  Remember, this was a Dodgers lineup that started 7 of its 8 projected starters, including Manny, as only Casey Blake was missing.  Overall a VERY impressive start from Gil, it sounds like his back is just fine.

Tomorrow

Horacio Ramirez will get ANOTHER start tomorrow as the Royals take on the Rangers tomorrow at Surprise Stadium.  First pitch is scheduled for 3:05 central time.  Getting the nod for the Rangers will be Scott Feldman.

Mike Aviles Grand Slam caps off 8-3 win as Greinke K's 8..

Recap

The Royals only scored in two innings today, 4 runs each to be exact, and that would be all they needed to beat the Oakland A's in front of a crowd of 5,359.  Josh Outman struggled to get through his 3.1 innings, including giving up a grand slam to SS Mike Aviles before recording any outs in the second inning.  He managed to bounce back and not allow any more runs after that home run, but the damage was done.

Zack Greinke was solid, striking out 8 over his 5 innings of work, although he did face some command issues as he walked two and hit a batter.  The A's managed to get to Zack for 3 runs in the 2nd inning but only 2 were earned after an Alberto Callaspo throwing error ruined a double play that should have ended the inning.  I'm beginning to wonder if Teahen is any worse defensively at 2nd base than Callaspo.

Oh, by the way Teahen hit another HR today, albeit in an intrasquad game.

Hitter of the Game

Mike Aviles and his grand slam garner him the hitter of the game award for today.  Aviles drove in 5 runs total and scored one himself on a 2-3 day at the plate.  Mike did not strike out or walk.  He is hitting .333 this spring.

Pitcher of the Game

Although he gave up the only runs of the game, Zack Greinke will be the pitcher of the game today.  Zack allowed 3 runs (2 earned) over his 5 innings of work today.  He gave up 4 hits, one of which went for extra bases (a Daric Barton triple).  Greinke walked two batters but struck out a total of 8.  Not bad.

Tomorrow

The Royals have another off day on Wednesday and will resume play on Thursday afternoon.

Another Tie?!?!

Well, the last play I was able to hear today was John Buck unleashing a home run over the left field fence.  I had to turn off the car and walk into class right after that, but I felt pretty confident the Royals would be able to hold on to their lead.. so much for what I know.

The Royals went on to give up two runs each in the 7th and 8th innings via Kyle Farnsworth and Jimmy Gobble, tying the Cleveland Indians 9-9 today.

Hitters

Although the Royals managed to score 9 runs, their hitters were pretty disappointing, in my opinion.  They had 13 hits but drew just 2 walks (both by Mike Jacobs, go figure..) and struck out 9 times.  I realize this team has a lot of starters at the WBC, but 9 Ks to 2 BBs isn't just unacceptable, it's really bad.  The one positive coming from the strikeouts was that 2 of them were from an 0-3 Gload, who *fingers crossed* will manage to suck so bad he won't make the team out of Spring Training.  John Buck had a a double to go along with his home run and was 2-3.

Pitchers

As a group, the Royals pitchers were bad, you never want to have a team ERA of 9.  However, they did manage 12 strikeouts, which is encouraging.  They also surrendered 5 walks, which is discouraging, but not too bad if you're getting 12 strikeouts.  Greinke gave up 2 home runs, which is disappointing, as he had an excellent first outing, but I'll give him a free pass because it is ST.  Roman Colon had another scoreless outing, which brings him up to 3 scoreless innings with 5 strikeouts and 1 walk.  It's looking more and more like he might make the team.

Hitter of the Game

The hitter of the game award today goes to Alex Gordon.  Alex was 2 for 3 and hit a grand slam, totaling 4 RBI and 1 run.  Alex is hitting .250/.357/.583 so far this spring.  I realize it's early but if can keep that production up it would be a good building block off of the second half of last season when he hit .277/.392/.496 in 41 games.

Pitcher of the Game

The pitcher of the game award goes to Joel Peralta, who logged a scoreless inning, striking out 2 and walking none while giving up just a single.  Joel hasn't had a good spring so far, and was very susceptible to the home run last season, but he's still a fairly reliable veteran who should be stashed in AAA in case he doesn't make the club.  I'm more than confident he'll have some solid major league innings this season, once again.

Tomorrow

Brian Bannister will face off against Kevin Millwood and the Rangers tomorrow in Surprise.  He will be followed up by Luke Hochevar, no word yet on the other scheduled pitchers.  First pitch will be at 2:05 central time.

Notes

The Royals finished signing the rest of the non-arb. eligible players on their 40 man roster today, namely; Mitch Maier, Billy Butler and Mike Aviles.  No real news there, and it's interesting that Aviles agreed to the deal while not even in camp (he's at the PR WBC camp).  Further proof that he really isn't involved in the process at all (at least late in the process).  This isn't necessarily true though, because he could have agreed last week sometime and they were just waiting for one of the other three to finish up because the Royals wanted to announce the signings at the same time.. Who knows.

Thanks as always for reading.