RBI Efficiency: Understanding Opportunity

This post has long been in the works. Not necessarily in the physical sense, but in the mental sense. Ever since reading my first Baseball Prospectus article more than 5 years ago I have longed to have a better understanding of the REAL numbers behind baseball. It's frustrating living in a world full of outdated stats which don't always tell the whole story. None are more frustrating than RBI. I have come up with a way to better compare RBI numbers. I'm going to share this stat with you.

It seems as if almost every year when the discussion for MVP comes up, each candidate's RBI numbers are compared and a winner is determined by whoever has the most. This seems unfair to me. Not every player has the same opportunities to drive in runs. Why penalize a player for having ~5 less RBI when he had the opportunity to drive in 1000 runs, whereas the player who had ~5 more RBI had the opportunity to drive in 1150 runs? These players are clearly not being compared on an even plane. Think about it like this: When deciding a Cy Young Award winner, would you take into account the fact that one pitcher started 3 fewer games? I would. Now, this is slightly different because in a pitching comparison you may take into account the fact that the better pitcher was able to start more games, either by not being injured or not being in the minors, etc. However, when comparing RBI opportunities, both players may have an equal number of games played and even plate appearances, however, one of the players had an opportunity for more RBI simply by his position in the batting order and the success of his teammates.

In order to alleviate the problem that different RBI opportunities create, I propose a new stat. I'm going to call it RBI Efficiency, at least for now. It is a stat that can show how successful a player is at driving in runs compared to the opportunities that he has to drive in runs. This number can be shown as a decimal, but I prefer to show it as a percentage. This percentage literally says that player X will drive in a run XX% of the time he has the opportunity to drive in a run.

The calculation of this stat is actually fairly simple, but I don't believe anyone has come up with it yet due to a lack of statistical information being readily available until recently. www.Baseball-Reference.com has a link to batting split-stats for every major league player, broken down by year. This information is vital to calculate RBI-e. By looking at how many plate appearances each player had in different RBI situations, and then weighing how successful they were versus how successful they could have been, you can come up with their RBI-e.

Later in this post I will break down the 2010 Royals RBI-e, as well as a few other players in the AL for the 2010 season, but for now I will break down how this stat is calculated.

Every time a player comes to bat, he has an opportunity to drive in at least 1 run. This is true no matter the game situation, no matter the outs, and no matter the inning. If the bases are empty, the player has the "opportunity" to drive in 1 run. That is to say, in a perfect (offensive) world, each player would come to bat and hit a solo home run. The goal of baseball is to score runs, and this is the simplest, most efficient way of doing so. Since that player has the "opportunity" to score 1 run, all of his RBI with the bases empty are measured against the number of plate appearances he had. For instance, in 2006, Mark Teahen had 234 plate appearances with the bases empty. He had 8 RBI in such situations, therefore, when calculating his RBI-e you start with his efficiency being 8/234. In reality, a very small percentage or runs are scored this way, and so a player's true efficiency will not very well be reflected by his efficiency with the bases empty.

As we continue to determine a player's RBI-e, I find it helpful to create a small chart that looks something like this:

PA RBI e

empty 234 8 8/234

1 on xxx xx xx/xxx

2 on xxx xx xx/xxx

full xx xx xx/xx

total: xxx/xxxx e: xx.xx%

Continuing with our calculation of Mark Teahen's RBI-e in 2006, he had 146 plate appearances with 1 man on. In those situations, (either with a man on 1st, 2nd, or 3rd) he had the opportunity to drive in 292 runs (again, think of ultimate success as a home run, in this case, a 2 run shot). He drove in 35 RBI. His efficiency with 1 man on was 35/292, giving him a running total of 43/526.

Mark had 51 plate appearances with 2 men on. He could have hit 51 3 run home runs, meaning he had the "opportunity" to drive in 153 RBI. He drove in 22 Runs. This brings his running total to 65/679. Mark had 8 plate appearances with the bases loaded. He had the opportunity for 8 grand slams, for a total of 32 RBI. He drove in 4 runs for an "e" of 4/32.

Mark Teahen's RBI-e in 2006 was 69/711, 0.970, or 9.70%. This is to say Mark Teahen drove in 9.70% of the runs that he had the opportunity to drive in. If we take a look back at our chart from earlier, and finish filling it out, it looks like this:

PA RBI e

empty 234 8 8/234

1 on 146 35 35/292

2 on 51 22 22/153

full 8 4 4/32

total: 69/711 0.970 RBI-e=9.70%

No stat has meaning without understanding how different players compare, but before I break down other players, I'd like to discuss what this stat is meant to do, and its flaws. This stat is NOT meant to determine how well a player did compared to how well an average player might do. To better understand what I mean by this, consider the following. I lump together all of a player's plate appearances with one man on. This may seem counterintuitive at first, because a player is expected to drive in many more runs with a man on third and no outs than he is expected to drive in with a man on first and 2 outs. However, this stat is not meant to weigh individual expectancies, it is simply a tool to help measure different players' efficiency when it comes to driving in runs. You may argue that this puts certain players at a disadvantage, especially those that do not hit home runs very often. I would agree, however, as I discussed earlier, in a perfect world, a home run would be the result of every at bat, and so by putting players who do not hit home runs at a disadvantage, we are simply viewing them in a truer sense of their value when compared to other players.

That being said, let's look at a break down of the 2010 Royals. There were 11 players who drove in at least 30 RBI in 2010. Those players were:

78 Billy Butler

78 Yuniesky Betancourt

77 Jose Guillen

56 Alberto Callaspo

51 Scott Podsednik

43 Wilson Betemit

39 Mitch Maier

37 Jason Kendall

37 David DeJesus

32 Mike Aviles

When you look at RBI totals alone, Butler, Betancourt and Guillen were clearly the standouts. Let's take a look at their RBI-e now.

8.27% Wilson Betemit

8.02% Jose Guillen

7.88% Yuniesky Betancourt

6.98% Billy Butler

5.99% David DeJesus

5.75% Alberto Callaspo

5.71% Mitch Maier

5.65% Scott Podsednik

4.60% Mike Aviles

4.70% Jason Kendall

As you can see, the names at the bottom of the list probably don't surprise you, except maybe Aviles. However, Wilson Betemit being at the top came as a bit of a surprise to me. Betemit drove in 43 runs last season, but he only had the opportunity to drive in 520, which was less than half the amount that Billy Butler had the opportunity to drive in. Wilson Betemit did a better job of utilizing his RBI opportunities than Butler did, and, theoretically, if Betemit had as many opportunities as Butler, he would (should) have driven in more runs. Butler's efficiency is simply not as good as it could have been. In order to gain more perspective let's take a look at how Butler has been since reaching the majors in 2007.

Billy Butler RBI-e

2007 8.74%

2008 7.30%

2009 8.62%

2010 6.98%

As you can see, these numbers bounce around a little bit, he seems to have had some success his rookie year, regressed a bit in his sophomore year and then taken another step forward in 2009. However, last year he regressed a bit again, at least when looking at his ability to drive in runs. Let's take a look at another fairly young player with a similar number of plate appearances in his career.

Evan Longoria RBI-e

2008 9.80%

2009 10.03%

2010 9.23%

Clearly, Longoria does a better job of utilizing his opportunities to drive in runs. In fact, in 2010, Longoria had the opportunity to drive in 1127 runs. Butler had the opportunity to drive in 1117 runs. Butler drove in 78, while Longoria drove in 104. Now that we have a better understanding of efficiency, we can determine that while Butler drove in 26 fewer runs, he had 100 less "opportunities" to drive in a run. When you combine both of these numbers you can see that he was simply not as good as Longoria at driving in runs.

Just for fun, let's take a look at Miguel Cabrera's 2010 season (2010 AL RBI leader). Miguel had the "opportunity" to drive in 1127 runs, which is the exact same number that Evan Longoria could have driven in. However, Miggy drove in 126 runs, while Longoria drove in 104. Miggy's RBI-e Then was 11.18%. He was clearly better than Longoria.

I hope this stat will be useful for helping to determine not only players' seasons as they compare to other players, but also as they compare to their own careers. This stat is not meant to be an end-all, be-all kind of stat, and I doubt you'll find it on the back of a baseball card anytime soon. But it can be a useful tool when comparing different players, especially when looking at players who bat in different spots in the lineup and who play for teams with largely different levels of runs scored. Thanks for reading.

Melville Shines in Debut, Trey Hillman Sucks..

I am getting sick and tired of watching Trey Hillman make stupid decision after stupid decision.  George Brett can bitch and moan all he wants, but the fact of the matter is that the media complain about Trey's moves because the media know what the hell they're talking about..

Pulling Gil Meche after 87 pitches when he's got the best stuff he's had all season - mistake

Replacing him with Jamey Wright who's practically already thrown his arm off and it's not even June yet - mistake

Replacing him with Sidney Ponson who obviously sucks.. - mistake

Bunting DDJ over with John Buck in the 6th (I think) inning with 1 out - mistake

You think that it's not a big deal, but when we're 4 games out of the playoffs in September remember nights like tonight, when a competent manager who would bring in a guy like Robinson Tejada with the bases loaded instead of bringing him in to clean up Hooch's mess.. it just doesn't make any sense..  Use your best pitchers in the close games and let them pitch the most innings.  Jamey Wright has had a nice start to the season, but the dude wasn't even on a major league contract before the end of ST.  He's already thrown like 500 innings and his stuff isn't electric.  I know that Joakim is hurt, but jeez, don't act like our bullpen is 05 status.. it's clearly better than that. 

Look at it this way, of the 4 pitchers that pitched tonight, they would rank like this in terms of current ability:

Meche
Tejada

Wright
Ponson

So why don't you let Meche pitch into the 7th and if he has some trouble bring in Tejada to bail him out, we're up 2 runs at that point, shouldn't you use your 2nd best pitcher, remember, as you achieve outs, there are less opportunities for the other team to score and win, so while the outs are more "valuable" in the 9th than in the 1st (think of it like the clock ticks faster after the 2 minute warning than before in football) it's also more difficult to come back because you have less chances to screw up.  Use your better pitchers while you have the lead, don't let your worse pitchers come in and screw it up.  Jamey Wright got screwed on a HBP call but that doesn't make it ok to bring in an even worse pitcher in Sidney Ponson, who is 1-5 now, btw.  It frustrates me to no end, and I really want Trey fired.  Seriously.

Whatever.

Hitter of the Game

I guess Jose Guillen.  Jose was 2-4 with a walk, 2 k's 2 RBI and a run scored.  One of his hits was a double.

Pitcher of the Game

Gil threw 87 pitches, 55 were for strikes.  His line ended up looking like this: 6 ip, 6 h, 2 er, 1 bb, 2 k.. the k's are lower than you'd like, but he wasn't bad at all.. a lot of ground ball outs and not many hard hit balls..

Tomorrow

The Don pitches tomorrow.  He'll face off against Carl Pavano in an epic battle (just kidding I hope) in an afternoon game.  First pitch is at 1:10.  If you CAN go, then you SHOULD go.

Minor League Notables

Derrick Robinson had another 2 hit night, going 2-5 with a run scored and 2 more stolen bases.

Mike Moustakas was 3-5 with a double, an RBI, and 2 runs scored.

Johnny Giavotella got on base 3 times as he was 1-3 with a triple, an RBI, 2 walks, and 2 runs scored.

Danny Duffy earned the win tonight as he went 5 innings giving up 3 runs on 7 hits 2 walks while striking out 5.  He is now 5-1 with a 3.43 ERA.. I'll take it.

Nick Van Stratten was 4-4 tonight with a double, a triple, 2 runs scored, 3 RBI and a walk and a  stolen base.  Alright!

Tim Melville made his 2009 debut tonight, he pitched 6 innings, allowing just one run on 2 hits and 1 walk, striking out 2.  He earned the win.

Thanks for reading!

Royals outlast rain delay to beat O's and snap 6 game skid..

Zack Greinke probably threw his worst game of the year tonight.  He gave up 1 run over 7 innings on 6 hits and 2 walks while only striking out 6.  When that's your ace's worst start of the season 35+ games in, you're doing pretty well.  Tonight's win puts the Royals in first place by percentage points over the Detroit Tigers and the rest of the AL Central.  Woo.

Short post, so let's get right into it..

Hitter of the Game

The offense was pretty solid tonight and the award could go to quite a few hitters.. Olivo drove in 3 and homered, Jacobs homered, and Mark Teahen had 3 hits.  But it was Jose Guillen who reallly broke the game open with a 2 RBI single in the first inning.  Those 2 runs would prove to be enough as Greinke was pitching, so I'll go with Jose as the hitter of the game award winner.

Pitcher of the Game

Zack Greinke continued his quest to start the All Star game tonight, as he went 7 innings allowing 1 run on 6 hits and 2 walks while striking out 6.  His ERA is "UP" to 0.60 on the season.  Sick.

Tomorrow

Kyle Davies will take on Rich Hill and the Orioles tomorrow in a 6:10 p.m. start.  Davies looks to build off his last start when he went 6+ innings and gave up just 1 run against the Angels last Sunday.

Minor League Notables

Kila Ka'aihue hit a home run tonight for Omaha.  He was 1-4 with a walk, an RBI and 2 runs scored.

Chris Nicoll struck out 4 in 2 perfect innings for AA Northwest Arkansas.

John Bale made an appearance for AA Northwest Arkansas as well, throwing a scoreless inning.  He gave up 0 hits and walked 1 and struck 1 out.  His ERA is at 2.45 in 4 appearances for AA.

After a slow start Jamar Walton has his batting average up to .296 after a 2-4 performance tonight.  He did not strikeout or walk.  Look out for Jamar, we signed him midway through last season and I think he has enough potential to be a pretty good sleeper prospect, he is 23 so he's a tad old for his level, but keep an eye out for him anyway.

Danny Duffy pitched 5 solid innings tonight, allowing just 1 run.  He struck out 3, walked 1 and allowed 4 hits.

Blaine Hardy started tonight for A Burlington Bees.  He threw 5 innings of 1 run ball, allowing 4 hits and walking 2 batters.  He struck out 4.  His ERA is at 2.67 on the season.

Thanks for reading!

Two straight comebacks leave the Royals alone atop the Central..

Sorry there wasn't a post on Saturday, I was too busy turning 21..

I did catch a chunk of the game though, and all I can say is that the Royals gave me my favorite birthday present this year in the form of a W!  Coupled with Sunday's comeback stunner, the Royals are 14-11 and alone in first place in the central.  They are also in pretty good condition to move further ahead as the pitching matchups for the 2 game Chi-Sox series looks like this:

Bartolo Colon vs. Zack Greinke

Gavin Floyd vs. Kyle Davies

You have to love facing a teams 2 worst starters (probably) with 2 of your best 3 starters.  

Anyway, as I said, Saturday was my birthday, and I was excited that the Royals managed a win.  The Royals really aren't that good on my birthday.  In the 21 years that I have been alive, (and a Royals fan), the Royals have had 17 games on my birthday.  In those games the Royals are 7-10.  I guess that really isn't that awful considering how many years the Royals have been awful during that span.

The Royals impressed me to no end on saturday with their patience at the plate, even against a team that rarely makes mistakes.  The Royals drew 5 walks against 5 strikeouts.  Not great, but acceptable, especially in a win.

And again today, while the Royals drew just 3 walks against 5 strikeouts, they still did a good job of not giving up.  Jose Guillen's long ball really changed the game, but only the half inning before Meche had given up 2 more runs, had he not done this, Guillen's long ball would have given them the lead.  They fought and clawed back to the top.  It's a horrible cliche, but it stands true.  Good teams find ways to win these kinds of games, bad teams find ways to lose them.

Let's look at the award winners

Hitter of the Game

Sat - Willie Bloomquist, believe it or not.  Willie was 3-5 with a BB and K on saturday.  He hit his first home run of the season, stole 2 bases, drove in a run and scored 2 more.  Willie has impressed me so far this season.  He's actually not been bad.

Sun - It's gotta be Jose Guillen.  Guillen changed the game.  While Bloomy and Teahen had broken up the no hitter right before him, Guillen broke up the shutout and basically turned Baker's bid for a no hitter into a 6 ip 5 er affair.  Not bad.  Guillen was 2-3 with a BB, 4 RBI, 1 run and no strikeouts.  His two hits both when for extra bases, one was a double and the other was a home run.

Pitcher of the Game

Sat - It's gotta be Soria - Joakim the Dream pitched 1.2 scoreless innings, giving up just 1 hit and striking out 1 while walking none.  Joakim picked up his first win of the year.

Sun - I'll go with Jamey Wright, who picked up his 3rd hold of the year.  Jamey pitched a perfect 8th inning, striking out 2.  Jamey's ERA is at 1.72 so far this season.

Callaspo - Bert Reynolds has been absolutely awesome this year and is now hitting .380/.432/.570.  Just thought I'd bring that up..

Tomorrow - The Royals are playing the Chi Sox and Greinke will take on Bartolo Colon.  I'll be at the game and I plan on taking more pictures.  Maybe I'll actually post them this time, we'll see..

Minor League Notables - 

The Bees won 1-0 in 10 innings today on the back of Blaine Hardy and Brian Casey's strong pitching performances.  (they were the only pitchers used in the game.  They combined for 10 innings, 6 hits, 7 strikeouts, and 3 walks, no runs.  Nice.)

Wilmington was postponed

Northwest Arkansas was postponed

Omaha was postponed

Exciting.

Thanks as always for reading!

Ponson Experiment Over?

I must stress I have no exclusive knowledge as to what Dayton Moore and Trey Hillman are thinking.  I just know that when you have a team that is 12-11 and a starting pitcher that is 0-4 with an ERA above 7, it is unlikely that said pitcher will be in the rotation for long.

Needless to say Ponson was awful tonight.  disclaimer: I did not actually watch the game.  I did look at the box score, though, which lists Ponson as: 4.1 IP 9 H 7 ER 1 BB 1 K 1 HR.  Awful.  10 baserunners in 4.1 innings is way too much, especially when 5 of those baserunners reached base with extra base hits.  Even if Hoch isn't ready yet, there is no doubt in my mind that the Royals would be better off with Duckworth, Matt Wright, Heath Phillips, Lenny DiNardo, hell, maybe even Bruce Chen.  Ponson had his shot, and he has failed.  Time to move on.

Speaking of moving on..

The Royals drew 0 walks tonight and struck out 8 times.  I know we're facing the Twins.. but Really?

Really?

Ugh! So frustrating..

Hitter of the Game

HoG goes to David DeJesus.  Jose Guillen had more hits, but DDJ contributed to more runs.  On the night David was 2-4 with 3 RBI and a run scored.  He did not strike out or walk.  One of his hits was a double, his third of the season.

Pitcher of the Game

Wow.  Horacio Ramirez earned the PoG award tonight.  He needed just 13 pitches to get 5 outs, including a strikeout.  He did not give up a walk, hit, or run.  With this impressive outing, he dropped his ERA to 9.00.  Nice.

Tomorrow

Brian Bannister takes on Glen Perkins in Minnesota tomorrow night.  First pitch is at 6:05, Banny will go for his 3rd win of the season.

Minor League Notables

AAA Omaha and AA Northwest Arkansas were both rained out tonight

Derrick Robinson was 1-4 with 3 Ks and a run scored.  He did steal his 12th base of the season, however.

Jeff Bianchi was 2-3 with a double and a run scored, he was caught stealing for the 2nd time this season.

Eric Hosmer scored the only run in a 1-0 Burlington Bees win.  He was 1-2 with a walk and a double.  He is batting .231/.354/.308 in 65 at bats this season.

Thanks as always for reading!

Bannister effectively wild and wildy effective..

Well it was definitely a good game tonight, although it was pretty weird, as well.  I've never seen a game in which a pitcher has been so dominant when pitching so poorly.  Brian Bannister had only 53 strikes in 103 pitches and yet threw 7 innings giving up just one run on one hit.  He did walk six and strike out two and the game was weird all the way around.  David Purcey struck out just three Royals after being a big time strikeout pitcher in his other starts this season.

Guillen went yardski twice and Miguel hit a home run to center field.  Bloomquist's line ended up 1/2 with 2 walks and a sac fly.  His only hit was a triple.  Coco had another walk.  Teahen had 3 of the hardest hit balls of the game and was 0-3 with a walk.  The Royals as a team took 8 walks, which is encouraging.

Overall it was a fun game, although it was rainy and a bit cold, I had a great time.  The stadium looks awesome and it really feels like a major league ballpark now.  Hopefully I'll be able to upload my pictures sometime tomorrow and get them posted.

Hitter of the Game

Has to be Jose Guillen.  Jose was 3-4 with 2 home runs, 2 runs scored, 3 RBI, no walks and no strikeouts.  Jose was really impressive today as both of his HRs were no doubters and had to be on a night like tonight with the way the weather was.

Pitcher of the Game

This will be the only time this season a pitcher with 6 walks gets the PoG award, but Banny earned it tonight.  He was effectively wild and wildly effective, giving up just one hit in 7 innings, walking six and striking out two.  It was encouraging to see Banny be effective even without his best control, or even his better control, which he blamed on the weather and the wetness of the ball.

Tomorrow

Gil Meche will face Scott Richmond in a 7:10 start.  The Royals will again try and climb back into a tie with Detroit for first place as Detroit is now 11-8 while the Royals are 10-9.

Minor League Notables

The O-Royals offense got to Rangers Super-Prospect Neftali Feliz today, getting 5 runs (although all 5 were unearned) in 2.2 innings off of 3 hits and 4 walks.  The O-Royals won 8-1 over OKC in a game that was called after 7 innings.

Chris Lubanski had 2 more hits, going 2/3 with a double and a walk.  He drove in 2 runs and scored 1 himself.

Luke Hochevar threw 6 innings giving up 1 unearned run on 4 hits and 2 walks.  He struck out 7 and threw 96 pitches.  His ERA is now 1.44 this young season.

Jose Bonilla, the young catcher for the Burlington Bees hit his first home run of the season tonight.  On the game he was 1/3 with 2 rbi and a run scored.

Thanks as always for reading.

Stars aligned for Teahen to take off??

Well, after another short hiatus I'm back.  I guess I should warn everyone that throughout the season I may miss a few days due to my somewhat unpredictable schedule.  Rest assured, however, that I will always be back and should be able to catch up the PoG and HoG award winners for the games that I missed.  Speaking of the PoG and HoG, you should notice a new table on the main page with a list of all the HoGs and PoGs that I will update all year long.

Anyway, let's look what's gone on since I last posted!

The Royals fell 4-2 on Tuesday, with 3 of those runs coming from a shot by Jim Thome.  Personally, I was distraught when Meche wasn't run back out to pitch the 8th after he only had 91 pitches in the 7th (this was a pitcher who led the league in pitches last year), but I was even more distraught when Hillman left Farnsworth (the king of giving up HR.. or at the least the Prince to Joel Peralta's King) in to face one of the best HR hitters of all time.  Farnsworth throws hard and straight, Thome hits hard straight balls a long ways..  Bad combo.  I fully expected Hillman to put in Mahay or Soria or even Cruz in after Farnsworth K'd the righty Quentin.  It just didn't make much sense to me for Farns to stay in.  But by not posting yesterday I mostly missed out on this discussion so I'll let bygones be bygones.   Anyway, there were only two pitchers yesterday and one ended up with an ERA of 9, the other ended up with an ERA under 2.  For those reasons I'll anoint Gil Meche as the first PoG.  As for hitters, I'll name the only player to drive in a run (he drove in 2) to be the HoG.  Gil Meche and Alex Gordon, if those two players are the most important for a lot of games this year I expect we'll do pretty well.

As for today's game, I felt like it was a slightly worse game for the Royals than yesterday, even though they won.  The offense was slightly less patient and the pitching was slightly less good.  Don't get me wrong, it was a great game.  In fact, I think one of the most important plays of April happened this game.  In the 8th inning, Mark Teahen ranged far to his right and scooped a ball up on the run and threw out Dewayne Wise.  While Mark Grudz probably would have made this look routine even with his reduced range, I was pretty impressed.  I know it's early, but so far Mark Teahen has not been embarrassing at 2nd base.  Listening to his interview today on 810 with Soren Petro, he makes me want to believe that playing 2nd base is something he will work even harder at than learning the OF.  This is because it is something he enjoys.  Mark Teahen will probably never have the career he could have had if the Royals had drafted Ryan Braun and moved him to the OF while keeping Teahen at 3B.  But that doesn't have to be a bad thing.  Teahen is only 27 this season, and while he may not be that pull hitter everyone wants him to be, by playing 2B and having Kevin Seitzer as a pitching coach, I really feel like the stars are in line for Teahen to have another breakout year.  He may not do this by hitting for a ton of power, but look for a player who will hit for around .290 with a lot of doubles, a lot of walks, less strikeouts, and around 15 home runs.  Maybe a player similar to Jose Lopez with a few more walks?  That may be something to hope for.  Probably not as good defensively as Jose, however.

Anyway, the PoG of today's game has to be Zack Greinke.  Greinke looked like good ol' vintage Zack.  I had hoped he could get through 7 innings, but let's be honest, in today's world 6 innings of shutout ball and 3 hits is pretty good for a starting pitcher.  Add in the fact you're pitching AT the home of one of the better offenses in the league, and he had a downright great performance.  The hitter of the game will be Mike Aviles.  Mike had a nice bounceback day after going 0-4 in his '09 debut yesterday.  Mike was the only Royal to score a run, as he scored both of the runs today.  He also started the only double play of the game.

Another thing I just remembered that somewhat irks me is the sac bunt that Crisp had to lay down today.  I know Hillman used to manage in Japan, but c'mon!  There simply isn't a Tony Pena Jr. in the starting lineup (hopefull there won't be in ANY starting lineup this season!)  The Royals lineup is clearly aligned for offense, otherwise Gload will still be here and playing 1B, Bloomquist would be playing 2B Guillen would be the DH with Teahen in the OF.  But, that's not the case, the lineup is catered to offense, so let them hit!  What irked me even more was there was a wild pitch to move Aviles to 2B while Crisp was trying to bunt.  Did Trey decide to then let Crisp swing away with a 2-0 count?  NO.  He made Crisp bunt Aviles over to 3rd.  Ouch.  This is the leadoff hitter we're talking about.  A player capable of 35 doubles and 15 home runs, not to mention a .300 average.  And we're bunting over to 3rd with no outs..  Really?

This nonsense has to stop!

On the plus side, there haven't really been any baserunning gaffs yet, and no stolen bases, so that's a good sign.  (I think only Crisp and Teahen should be green-lighted on the basepaths.. everyone else is probably too much of a liability.  And I'm not saying Teahen is as good at stealing as Crisp, I just think he is as smart on the basepaths as any other player in the majors, so the trust should be there to allow him to know when to run and when not to run.)

Anyway, the game tomorrow starts at 1:05 p.m. with Kyle Davies taking on John Danks.  Should be another pitcher's duel.. (or so we hope!)

Thanks for reading!

p.s. I picked 77 in the poll question..

Royals ride Gil's Gem past Dodgers..

After 35 straight days of blog posting, I needed a few days off, so excuse my short sabbatical.  Anyway, I'm back and ready to hit my stride right as spring training finishes up and the boys in blue pack up and come back home to KC.  The Royals were in action today against the Dodgers, and won handily, 4-1, behind a strong start by Gil Meche.

In fact, all of the pitching was very good today, as the pitchers allowed just one run on 5 hits while striking out 9 and walking just three.  No extra base hits were allowed.

The offense was not bad, either, banging out 10 hits for 4 runs.  2 of the ten hits went for extra bases, both being doubles smacked by John Buck and Jose Guillen.  The offense continues their struggles as of late as far as drawing walks however, as they drew just 1 while striking out 8 times.

Hitter of the Game

Mike Aviles, back in the three hole, continued his torrid pace at the plate today.  Mike was 2-3 with one walk and one RBI.  Aviles is hitting .407/.469/.704 in 27 spring at bats.  

Pitcher of the Game

Gil Meche, no ifs ands or buts.  Gil had the kind of outing that will hopefully quiet critics who had been speaking quite loudly as of late.  Gil pitched 7 shutout innings, allowing just 4 singles.  Gil also struck out 6 batters while walking just one.  Remember, this was a Dodgers lineup that started 7 of its 8 projected starters, including Manny, as only Casey Blake was missing.  Overall a VERY impressive start from Gil, it sounds like his back is just fine.

Tomorrow

Horacio Ramirez will get ANOTHER start tomorrow as the Royals take on the Rangers tomorrow at Surprise Stadium.  First pitch is scheduled for 3:05 central time.  Getting the nod for the Rangers will be Scott Feldman.

That'll Cost-ya -- My thoughts on Shane, and his Major League potential

Little Royals news today, but I'll hit the main points anyway:

• Mike Jacobs took a "personal day" and did not participate in any drills
  
• Jose Guillen swung a little in the batting cage but did not swing at live pitching, he did participate in drills for the whole day, however.
  

That is essentially all of the news that there is for the day.  Also, we have detailed information about Orlando Hudson's contract.  That breakdown can be found here.  It's just more proof that the more creative you can be, the better the chance you have of signing a player for a good deal.  On another note Orlando Cabrera is still available, and his asking price is down to 5.5 million supposedly.  DMGM.. Make it happen!

Also, I'd like to point out that an anonymous commenter left an excellent link that I was previously unaware to.  This page has a pretty good breakdown of the play-by-play for the intrasquad game I went over yesterday.  Thanks for this little treat anonymous!

Since today was pretty slow news-wise, I figured I'd start on my breakdown of our 40 man roster, one player at a time.  Today's player will be Shane Costa.  Costa is a pretty good example of a tweener.  He is a tweener for his position (not enough offense for a corner OF position, not enough defense for CF), and he is a tweener for his abilities, (is he a 4th OF, career AAAA player, or can he break into a starting lineup?)  

Shane was a 3 year player at Cal State Fullerton before being drafted in the 2003 draft as the 42nd overall player selected.  A few of the big name players selected closely after him are: Ryan Sweeney, Scott Baker, Andre Ethier, Jamie D'Antona, Tom Gorzelanny, and JoJo Reyes.  After being drafted Shane spent some time in Rookie ball, posting a 1024 OPS in 88 at bats.  Shane even saw 3 games worth of high A ball in his inaugural season.  Shane continued to rocket through the system, similar to many players during the Allard Baird era, reaching AA in his third year with the organization at the age of 23.  In 79 games Costa posted a 797 OPS with 24 walks and only 23 strikeouts.  Costa saw 4 games in AAA at the end of the year.  The very next year Costa would spend 73 games in the major leagues, batting .274 and posting a 709 OPS in 237 at bats.  This would prove to be Costa's best chance of sticking in the majors to date.  Shane also played 55 games in AAA that year, batting .342.

2007 would bring Shane another opportunity to play in the major leagues, this time did not go so well, however.  In 103 at bats with the Royals, Shane hit .223, posting an abysmal 558 OPS.  (Tony Pena, by comparison, posted a 640 OPS in 2007)  Shane still knew how to destroy minor league pitching, however, hitting .326/.402/.502 in 233 at bats.  

Last season saw Shane in AAA for the entirety of the 75 games he played in.  Fighting through injuries he hit .295 with just 39 strikeouts and 10 home runs.  Shane remains an option as a 4th OF for the Major League club this season, however that would probably require Mark Teahen winning the 2nd base job outright.  Most likely, Costa will start out again in AAA, providing depth in case of injury.  Costa has clearly mastered AAA, but may not have the abilities to move on to the next level.

While Costa has been written off by many as a AAAA player, he reminds me a lot of a former Royal who, while doing well in his time with the Royals, was traded for peanuts and went on to put up excellent numbers with his new club.  Like Costa, this player also played LF, and although not great defensively, he hits for a high average and is not prone to striking out.  He does not hit many home runs and does not walk a lot, but he manages to be a productive player.  The player?  Matt Diaz.  While their major league numbers are significantly different, I think their minor league numbers are very indicative of how similar these players are.

In 760 games Matt Diaz has a career minor league line of .313/.360/.488, for an OPS of 848.  Shane Costa has a line of .311/.373/.474, for an OPS of 847, in 416 minor league games.  While Diaz hits for slightly  more power, Costa clearly has the advantage in OBP, which is the more important advantage, in my opinion.  Costa also strikes out less and walks more.  Costa has 160 strikeouts to 131 walks in his minor league career, while Diaz has 471 Ks and 154 BB, in almost twice the games.

The point of this write-up, aside from providing insight and giving me a topic during a non-newsy day, is also to point out that some players just need a chance.  No one would argue that Matt Diaz is an all star or belongs in the hall of fame, or even that he will start a majority of the games in LF for the Braves this year.  But he has had an OPS plus of 114 and 124 in 2006 and 2007, which would have been the best on the Royals for both of those seasons.  I'm not saying Costa will live up to the few good years Diaz has had for the Braves, but I am saying that for the major league minimum, Costa could easily be on the same level as Jose Guillen as far as OPS+ goes.  While this isn't an end-all be-all stat, it certainly shows that the 13 million spent on Jose Guillen could be more wisely spent, perhaps on another above replacement player level middle infielder.

Well, I'll end the rant here, this post wasn't as well organized as I'd have liked, and most likely I will tweak my "player profile" posts in the future to be better organized and have better flow.  As always, leave any questions or suggestions for future topics in the comments.  Thanks for reading.

An Incentive Away From Contention?

Well, it's Saturday, which means that the first intrasquad game of spring training is tomorrow!  According to The Star,  the Royals have announced who will be pitching in the opener.  Jamey Wright, Julio Pimental, Devon Lowery and Heath Phillips will pitch two innings each and Henry Barrera will pitch one inning.  I am most excited to hear about how Julio, Devon and Henry do.  Barrera has the potential to be this year's Ram-Ram, in my opinion.  Now if only we could get a lineup for tomorrow's game!

Speaking of tomorrow's lineup, the one thing we do know is that Jose Guillen won't be in it.  Originally slated as the DH, Jose won't be playing due to a sore shoulder along with his sore toe.  I understand that Spring Training has only just begun and it takes players a while to get into the swing of things, but if he has a sore shoulder from overthrowing in the first few days of camp, that leads me to believe that he hadn't kept a very strict throwing regiment over the winter.  In fact, now that I think about it, I don't recall hearing about JoGui playing winterball at all.  I may be mistaken though.  More controversial news to come from Guillen is that he used to work out with the now infamous Angel Presinal, the same trainer that is banned from all MLB clubhouses and was allegedly working out with Alex Rodriguez. Although Jose claims that it hasn't been within the last three years and that it never involved PED's.  I think it's very discomforting that this steroid issue continues to grow despite the big congressional hearing which everyone thought was the pinnacle of the situation. 

Buster Olney recently wrote a new post, much of it centering on Greinke, and also the Royals improvement this offseason.  No new information really, except for this interesting little tidbit:  

"The Royals actually had a higher offer in a base salary for Orlando Hudson than theDodgers' winning offer -- $4.6 million, more than a million more than L.A.'s winning offer of $3.38 million. But Hudson can make more with the Dodgers if he realizes all of the incentive clauses, and there was a feeling all along within the Royals organization that Hudson's preference was to sign with L.A. and remain in the NL West as he tries to position himself for another run at free agency."

Well, this is somewhat depressing.  All the Royals had to do was add incentives, and we could have had an almost-all-star caliber second baseman and leadoff hitter.  We could have easily tweaked those incentives so that the Cabrera wouldn't have gotten paid unless we were within so many games of the division lead.  While this is the Royals I have come to expect, I wish that we could have pulled this one out.  I genuinely believe it could have turned us into a legitimate contender for the central pennant.

In the Star today was an excellent write-up about my second favorite Royal.  Coco Crisp is the type of "gritty" player that I enjoy being a fan of.  (As opposed to the "sucky" "gritty" player, like Ross Gload.)  While Coco still needs to try and improve his walk rate, if he can get back to his the stat lines he had in his years with Cleveland (or even head in that direction) it will make the loss of Ramon Ramirez hurt even less.  The best part about players like Coco Crisp and Mark Teahen is that you always know you are getting 100% effort from them.  This is clearly not the case with players like Angel Berroa, Neifi Perez and even some current Royals.  Coco has a lot of work to do to get back to the production that he has had in the past, but on a team like Kansas City where the pressure is much more similar to Cleveland than to Boston, maybe he has a chance.

On Royals.com there is a small write-up about Derrick Robinson's first few days of his first trip to major league Spring Training.  While it's clear this is just a "see what you're in for if you work hard" maneuver, I think it is a good idea.  Derrick will be closely working with both Coco Crisp and David DeJesus.  Derrick was the "Willie Wilson Award" winner for last year, which I was previously unaware of until reading this article.  The "Willie Wilson Award" is given out to the best baserunner in the minor league system.  I think this is an excellent idea.  Awarding good baserunning and creating incentives for players to work on it is a somewhat new concept.  The Royals should be doing more things like this, trying to create improvement of their minor leaguers' game in anyway possible.  Creating 5 tool players should be their goal.  

Last thing for the day, for those of you that aren't familiar, I'm a big Paul DePodesta fan.  Paul first came to my attention when he was a predominant figure in "Moneyball" as an assistant to Billy Beane.  He has since moved on to be the Dodgers GM from '04 to '05 and is now a special assistant to GM Kevin Towers of the Padres.  I was on the Paul DePodesta bandwagon (I think I was driving it actually) when the Royals were searching for a GM.  In fact, if DM ever gets fired I really hope Paul gets the job, I think he is an excellent talent and understands statistical correlation in baseball better than almost anyone.  (At least better than anyone who actually has a resume that could land them a GM job.)  Anyway, Paul has a blog that I enjoy reading very much and I thought I might pass that link on to everyone.  That link is Http://itmightbedangerous.blogspot.com so if you get the chance, take a look.  I wish there were more front end personell blogs similar to this with wonderful insight and sometimes even breaking news.  As always, thanks for reading, and please leave a comment if you have a question or want me to cover a specific topic.  Thanks.